Wizard's Crystal Ball:
#2 CONVOCATION (Race 3) Began his career earlier this year during the heart of the Gulfstream Park meeting, on a day when there was an intense speed bias. Son of top sire Pulpit broke slowly and sat in the back half of the field early on. Proceeded to make a steady run while wide and finished well for second against the grain of the track. Off that effort he was made the odds-on favorite in his second career start, stretching out to two turns. Breaking from a tough outside post, he proceeded to lose his best chance by ducking out sharply at the break and spotting the field about five lengths. He then entered the short run into the first turn well behind the field and very wide under new rider Javier Castellano. He continued to suffer a wide trip throughout and then proceeded to bear out turning for home, an indication of a soundness problem. Wrapped up late, he was only beaten 3-1/2 lengths for second despite a terrible trip coupled with an awful performance. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens learned his craft from one of the greatest horseman of all time, his father Allen, and as a result he doesn't make many mistakes. Jerkens gave this $340,000 purchase a freshening to fix whatever was ailing him and brought him back off a steady work pattern on May 2. If not for a brutal trip in which he was boxed in while stuck down on the inside for most of the running, he likely would have won over a very good field. Today he gets a favorable rider switch to Kent Desormeaux, and he should be set for a sharp performance with a race over the track while making his second start off the break. His best effort should win this race.
#6 FABULOUS STRIKE (Race 6) Cuts back to his best distance off a very game effort in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap, a 7-furlong race that is really a furlong beyond what he prefers. In that race he set a mercurial pace, put away his rival, and wasn't caught until deep stretch by an opportunistic closer. At 6 furlongs this son of top sire Smart Strike has won 9 of 14 races lifetime, and he has had very legitimate excuses in some of his rare losses such as the Breeders' Sprint last year, which was contested over synthetic track. This gelding has been training like a monster in the morning for trainer Todd Beattie, who wins at nearly a 30% clip with horses off 46-90 day layoffs. Three for five over Big Sandy, Fabulous Strike figures to sit a favorable trip pressing the pace from the outside under regular rider Ramon Dominguez. I look for him to take the lead turning for home and prove difficult to catch in the lane.
#8 JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE (Race 9) Was expected to present a challenge to the superfilly Rachel Alexandra in the G1 Kentucky Oaks, but was scratched the morning of that race when the track came up too wet. Streaking filly has won five straight races, including two Grade 2 events, all by relatively large margins, and she shows no signs of losing her sharp form. Since the scratch from the Ky Oaks she's shipped back to New York and has been working great over this track, where she broke her maiden last Oct 13. She's versatile enough to press or stalk the pace and could be sitting on a top performance while forced to sit 'on hold' for more than 2 months since her last race.
#4 MANCHILD (Race 13) NOTE: This play is for turf OR dirt. Although I much prefer this gelding if this race stays on the turf, I also like his chances if moved to dirt. He's raced for a claiming tag just twice so far in his career, and the results are a win and a close 2nd place finish. He raced in a turf sprint for the first time May 15 while also dropping in with claimers for just the second time, and the result was a comfortable win over this course and distance in solid time for the class level. He also had his blinkers removed for that race, but they didn't dull his early speed, as he pressed the pace from the start before taking over mid-stretch. Today he's very realistically spotted in hi first try against winners by hot trainer Carlos Martin, who's winning better than 30% so far at this meet. Winning jockey John Velazquez remains aboard and should have Manchild in a similar pace-pressing position today as they break outside of probable pacesetter Driven By Royal.
1st BEL 6f Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $53,000. (11:35)/10:35/ 9:35/ 8:35
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Race (1-3), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 DIXIELAND STAR 2/1 Returns from an 11-month layoff for hot trainer John Kimmel, who's winning nearly 30% at this meet. 4yo son of top NY sprint sire Hook and Ladder has run some strong races, better than the rest of this modest field has been able to produce, and his good 2nd place finish in his debut shows that he can fire fresh. He's hit the exacta in 3 of 4 starts over this track and regular rider Eibar Coa is back aboard.
3 INGER MANAGEMENT 5/2 Has speed to lead or press the pace and isn't really stepping up in class much off a atarter allowance win at Philly Park on May 4. The horse that finished 2nd behind him returned to finish 2nd in a $100,000 race at Penn National. Inger Management has finished 2nd in both prior starts at this NY bred allowance level, and if Dixieland Star isn't fit and ready enough off the layoff then this gelding should prevail.
9 BLOW UP 6/1 Added Lasix May 16 for his first start over this track and won by 5 widening lengths at 8-1. He need not improve all that much to contend in this spot and should factor for at least a minor award with his improving form.
2 NIGHT IN TUNISA 12/1 Won easily the only prior time that he made this turf-to-dirt move, and the win was over this track and distance. Should improve second start off the short layoff, with three more good works since the May 1 race.
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2nd BEL 7fAlwOClm $75,000 3yo and up, Purse: $55,000. (12:05)/11:05/10:05/ 9:05
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (2-4), Pick 4 Races (2-5),daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
6 MUCH THE BEST 8/5 $400,000 2yo purchase looks like he can clear to the lead fairly easily and never look back. Blinkers went on April 18 and he took off on the lead, setting too fast a pace but holding clear well into the final furlong at this same 7F trip. The blinkers came off May 16 and he was able to sit more patiently in 2nd. Today hot trainer Mike Hushion wants to sharpen that speed again so the hood is back on, and they have the good fortune of catching a field without another real front-runner.
3 SPEIGHT OF HAND 7/2 Returned from a 5-month layoff with a dominant win at this tough 7F distance on april 10, then ran a big race again May 10 when stretching out to 1-1/16 miles. Could be set for a top effort in his third start off the layoff and should have plenty of stamina on this cutback in distance. Trainer Chad Brown is 5 for 15 at this meet and excels with this route-to-sprint move, winning 22% in 2008-09.
7 JUST BEN 3/1 Chased Much The Best May 16 and finished right behind him in a good effort. Trouble-prone colt has yet to have a really good trip, mostly his own doing, yet has still shown plenty of ability and potential. Should be forwardly placed under John Velazquez.
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3rd BEL 1m MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $54,000. (12:37)/11:37/10:37/ 9:37
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 CONVOCATION 3/1 Gets the job done with a clean trip. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
10 ALLRIGHTSRESERVED 7/2 Looks like the main threat to Convocation as he makes back to back starts without a layoff for the first time in his career, a sign that he may be sounder and fitter than ever. He's finished a close 2nd in his last two starts, both at today's distance, and has shown versatility to lead or sit just off the pace.
11 WANTED ALIVE 5/1 Raced just once at age 2, finishing 4th in a very strong, 'key' race behind subsequent graded stakes winner Musket Man. Showed improvement when returning from a 6-month layoff May 9 and finished a close 2nd. Dominguez stays aboard.
12 FRENCHONIONSOUP 10/1 Found his best stride too late in his 4th place debut after a somewhat slow start. Adds Lasix now, a 25% winning angle for Bruce Levine, who's also won with 24% of his second time starters in 2008-09. Excellent wet track breeding.
6 WOODFORD MANHATTAN 15/1 Led all but the final yards when losing by a head in a fast race April 17. The winner of that event returned to win his next start as well. Didn't handle the turf 'experiment' May 16, but Nick Zito is not known for winning on grass. Should be set to rebound while moving to dirt.
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4th BEL 1 1/16m (IT)AlwOClm $50,000 3yo and up, Purse: $58,000. ( 1:10)/12:10/11:10/10:10
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6), Daily Double Wa
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 EXPANSION 3/1 Enters in career-best form after finishing 2nd twice in a row at this class level. His late-running style was compromised by a slow pace in those two races on April 4 and May 14 but he still finished powerfully for the place. He's hit the exacta in 7 of 9 lifetime starts on turf and lost by just a head in his only prior try over non-firm ground. Gets a much better post than he had last time out.
4 UNCLE INDY 5/1 Regally-bred horse is by one of the best sires of all time and out of the dam Auntie Mame, who was a G1 turf winner for this same trainer. Angel Penna Jr. has been on a tear at this meet, winning with 5 of 12 starters, and is at his best with turf horses. Uncle Indy has won two in a row and comes off his best career race, a clear win in very fast time where he flew thru his final furlong in :11-2/5. Cornelio Velasquez has been aboard for both victories and has won at a 30% rate when riding for Penna in 2008-09.
1 SPURRED 9/2 Makes his second start off a 10-month layoff and has been given time to recover from a game win at this distance in that race. He showed more tactical speed than he had in the past and loved the non-firm ground. He's always done well over non-firm turf and should love the footing today. Consistent 5yo has hit the board in 10 of 12 starts on grass, including 4 wins, and can save ground from post 1.
10 RADICAL SABBATICAL 8/1 Should be close to an expected mild pace despite his tough outside post. He has a win and a 2nd in two prior starts on Belmont turf and also likes non-firm ground.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (11)EVEN RAISE (12)JACK ON THE ROCKS (13)MR UNSTOPPABLE (5)IZANAGI
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5th BEL 1 1/16m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $56,000. ( 1:50)/12:50/11:50/10:50
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
3 GET STORMY 6/1 Should have won both of his last two starts but had trouble each time. He loomed home free March 31 but ducked in sharply and lost his rider when leading by 5 lengths in the final furlong. He returned May 20 and only lost by 1/2 length despite being blocked for much of the stretch, finishing 2nd to a 4-5 winner. With any kind of reasonable racing room he could have won. Shows a great bullet work over Belmont turf on May 31 and should retain his sharp form. Now all he needs is a little luck.
5 LE GRAND CRU 10/1 Finished close behind Get Stormy on May 20 while making his first start on turf and first start in a route race. It was a very good performance and now he adds blinkers. He's bred top and bottom to run all day and could land on the lead with the addition of the hood.
13 HANGINGBYATHREAD 6/1 Might have been the top choice if not for the bad post that he'll have if he gets in from the AE list. He got very good at the end of last year, with a 5-length win over soft ground and then a tough loss by a neck and a nose at 25-1 in a stakes race. He returned from the 6-month layoff with a dominant win in fast time under a hand ride and should only improve second start back for a hot trainer.
10 SETTE E MEZZO 4/1 Won off a short layoff April 3 and then finished 3rd May 14 despite a bad trip. He was close to the pace that day but then fell back to 6th on the far turn when forced to check. He then re-rallied and made up about 4 lengths in the final furlong. Benefits from this slightly longer trip.
4 SO IT GOES 6/1 Versatile gelding rated in last place to the far turn and then finished fast to get up for 2nd at 18-1 May 14 when returning from an 8-month layoff. He's shown more tactical speed in the past and could be forwardly placed today while breaking from a much better post. He won his only prior start at this distance, which was also his only prior start on non-firm ground, and did so at 26-1.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (5)LE GRAND CRU (11)PRECURSOR (1A)HAITIAN SENSATION (15)OVEREXTENDED (14)JOE CORRIGAN
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6th BEL 6f Grade II 3yo and up, Purse: $250,000. ( 2:33)/ 1:33/12:33/11:33
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (6-8), Pick 6 Races (6-11), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
6 FABULOUS STRIKE 2/1 Returns to his winning ways while cutting back to his best distance. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
3 TWO STEP SALSA 3/1 Is undefeated and untested in two races since being privately purchased by mighty Godolphin Stable. His victory in the G2, $1 million Godolphin Mile on March 28 was impressive and he's been freshened since, with some fast recent works over this track. He's 3 for 3 lifetime in races at today's 6F distance and has the ability to win if Smart Strike is not at his best. 4yo colt likes the lead but has shown in his last two wins that he can also press or stalk the pace.
1 BENNY THE BULL 5/2 Last year's sprint champion was retired with a minor injury, then un-retired when that malady cleared up fairly quickly. Nonetheless, he hasn't raced in nearly 11 months, and is using this race as a 'prep' for a return engagement in the Smile Sprint Handicap, a G2 race that he won impressively last year and that capped off his 4 for 4 campaign. He has a powerful late kick and should get an honest pace to rally into, but isn't expected to be fully 'cranked up' for this race.
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7th BEL 1m (Turf) Grade I 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $400,000. ( 3:15)/ 2:15/ 1:15/12:15
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Grand Slam Races (7-10),daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 MY PRINCESS JESS 5/1 I like this filly's chances at an upset as she makes her second start off a 6-month layoff and is expected to get the kind of non-firm ground that she loves. She was a G2 winner over soft turf last year at Saratoga, and now at age 4 she seems to have matured and improved further. Her May 2 victory off the layoff was extremely impressive because she had to rally from behind a very slow pace after also waiting in traffic for racing room. Her final 5/16 of a mile in :29 flat over the 'good' turf was outstanding and improvement is likely today second start back. She's shown good tactical speed in the past and will probably get the jump on expected heavy favorite Forever Together.
5 FOREVER TOGETHER 6/5 Last year's female turf champion finkshed a close 3rd in this race at 44-1 in 2008 and has since won 4 of 5 starts, including three Grace 1 events. She returned from a layoff for her 2009 debut April 11 and picked up where she left off, roaring home for a relatively easy win in the G2 Jenny Wiley. She's been pointed here since and is the proven class of the field, but the possible slow pace will work against her, and she's probably better at distances longer than a mile.
1 CARRIBEAN SUNSET 6/1 Finished 2nd to My Princess Jess May 2 with a strong finish in a race she probably needed off the 7-month layoff. She's a 3-time Group Stakes winner and is also Group 1 stakes-placed, and should improve second off the layoff for top turf trainer Clement. He's won at a 36% rate second off of similar layoffs in 2008-09 and this filly is proven to love softer ground.
2 RAW SILK 10/1 Without much early speed in this race this filly could be allowed to set a mild pace at this distance where she's 2 for 2 lifetime. She won in very fast time April 11 off the 5-month layoff and should be even fitter second time back. She's okay on non-firm ground, but is probably better over firm footing.
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8th BEL 7f Grade II 3yo, Purse: $250,000. ( 3:59)/ 2:59/ 1:59/12:59
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (8-10), Pick 4 Races (8-11), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 THIS ONES FOR PHIL 7/2 Has run three huge races in four attempts since moving to the barn of Richard Dutrow Jr. Stalker won in blazing time Jan 24 an also won the G2 Swale at today's 7F distance when moved up via disqualification after being interfered with during a fierce stretch battle. Most recently he was badly blocked as the winner rolled by in the G3 Withers, then put in a resolute rally too late. With clear sailing he could have won. Reunites with Garrett Gomez, who was aboard for the Swale win, and should sit a good stalking trip a few lengths back.
8 HULL 3/1 Undefeated colt has won all 3 starts by widening margins but will face his toughest test by far today. Projects to press the pace from his outside post under regular jockey Mena and should be prominant all of the way while shortening up a bit in distance.
4 MUNNINGS 4/1 $1.7 million 2yo purchase showed much potential at age 2 when he won his debut in very fast time and then placed in two Grade 1 events, including the Champagne over this track. He came off a 6-month layoff with a big effort in a very fast race May 1 and should move forward today for top trainer Pletcher. Stalker projects to get a fast pace to rally into and he likes this 7F distance.
6 HELLO BROADWAY 12/1 Price play finished 2nd in the G2 Hutcheson in his only prior start at 7F. Most recently he ran better than appears in the 9-furlong Peter Pan over this track when he added blinkers and tore off to set a suicidal pace. The blinkers come off today and he should have plenty of stamina while probably reverting to stalking tactics.
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9th BEL 1m Grade I 3yo Fillies, Purse: $300,000. ( 4:44)/ 3:44/ 2:44/ 1:44
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10) Pick 3 Races (9-11), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE 8/5 Finds a good spot to notch her first G1 victory. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
7 DREAM PLAY 6/1 Has been improving all year for Kiaran McLaughlin while playing 'second fiddle' to stablemate Justwhistledixie. Loved the initial stretch to a route on April 11 when she led all the way to win in fast time in the 1-mile Comely, also around one turn. She's been pointed here since, and if for some reason Justwhistledixie doesn't bring her best stuff, then this filly looks like the most likely upsetter.
9 FOUR GIFTS 6/1 Stalker won her second graded stakes race May 2 when she returned from a freshening to win the Eight Belles at a similar distance at Churchill Downs. She rarely misfires and should get an honest pace to stalk and rally into.
5 DOREMIFASOLLATIDO 6/1 Has 2 wins and 2 2nds over this track, including a strong victory in the G2 Matron last Sept 13. Versatile filly got a useful 'prep' May 15 off the 7-month layoff and was not abused when well clear of 3rd behind an odds-on winner who ran a hole in the wind. Should improve second time back for high-percentage trainer Jimmy Jerkens but must show that she can be effective in a race beyond 7F.
2 GABBY'S GOLDEN GAL 15/1 Set a very fast pace in her route debut March 29 but had plenty left in the tank to run away from her field in the stretch and win by 13 lengths in fast time. Faced a much tougher group in the Ky Oaks May 1 and wilted in the final furlong after leading most of the way. Should benefit from this cutback to a mile and could get very brave up front at big odds.
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10th BEL 1 1/4m (IT) Grade I 3yo and up, Purse: $400,000. ( 5:34)/ 4:34/ 3:34/ 2:34
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (10-12), Pick 4 Races (10-13),daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
5 GIO PONTI 7/2 Has been a classy and versatile turf horse from the start for top turf trainer Christophe Clement. He was a turf stakes winner at age 2 and a multiple graded turf stakes winner at age 3, including the G2 Virginia Derby at today's distance. However, now at age 4 he seems to have reached a new level. His powerful victory from far off the pace in the G1 Kilroe Mile last time out was his best race yet as he showed that his tremendous late turn of foot is as effective at a mile as it is at a mile and a quarter. With three months between starts he enters this race fresh and fit, with a history of running very well when fresh, including a victory in the G3 Hill Prince on Belmont turf a year ago to the day. Ramon Dominguez rode him last time out, but no one knows Gio Ponti better than Garrett Gomez, and he regains the mount today.
1 COURT VISION 4/1 Was a G1 winner at this distance in the Hollywood Derby and should appreciate the stretch out from the 9-furlong G1 Turf Classic on May 2. In that race he finished fast go get up for 3rd after trailing a mild pace. He's been pointed to this race by Hall Of Famer Bill Mott since then and hw won his only prior race on Belmont turf, winning the G2 Jamaica over non-firm ground.
12 COWBOY CAL 3/1 Put forth his typical gutsy effort in the G1 Turf Classic May 2 to miss by just a head to multiple G1 winner Einstein while finishing nearly 3 lengths clear of Court Vision in 3rd. This multiple G2 winner almost always runs his heart out and has hit the exacta in 10 of 13 lifetime starts over many different racing surfaces, almost all of them against graded stakes company. The outside post is tough but he has good early speed and should be able to secure a good pressing or stalking position before the first turn.
9 COSMONAUT 6/1 Can lead or sit just off the pace and should move forward in his second start off the 10-month layoff. His May 2 victory was excellent and in fast time over the 'good' turf, and he may be even better over softer footing. This distance is probably longer than his best but if the pace is slow then he can last for a minor award, as he did in his last start before the layoff.
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11th BEL 1 1/2m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $1,000,000. ( 6:27)/ 5:27/ 4:27/ 3:27
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Races (11-13),double Wagers Leg B - Brooklyn/belmont Double
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 DUNKIRK 4/1 Dunkirk did not exactly make an immediate splash in the water. He never had a chance to. This well-bred son of Unbridled’s Song never made it to the races as a two-year-old. Minor shin problems placed his racing career on hold. One has to believe that at some juncture, as a juvenile, this Todd Pletcher trained runner showed some type of promise. So, Dunkirk was given all the time necessary to put that problem behind.
When Dunkirk finally made his belated debut at Gulfstream Park on January 24, he did so with a steady, prolonged, and evenly-spaced, workout regimen at the Palm Meadows training center. To say he was well-prepared would be understated. Despite working out away from prying eyes at Gulfstream Park, Dunkirk was bet down to an 8-5 favoritism. There are some secrets that are not meant to be kept. Overcoming a lethargic start that day, with jockey Edgar Prado aboard, Dunkirk was forced to subsequently steady around the far turn. Undeterred, when he was finally in the clear, he accelerated nicely in the stretch to gain the lead, eventually winning by 5 3/4 lengths under modest encouragement. Dunkirk had lived up to his advanced notices, and even better things lay ahead for him. Dunkirk returned to the races rather quickly, tackling a field of preliminary Allowance runners around two turns on February 19. In addition, he would stretch out to 1 1/8 miles, and would be saddled with an outside post as well. Dispatched as the 6-5 favorite, Dunkirk was impressive once again in victory. A wide trip while losing valuable ground throughout, did nothing to discourage him, as he improved his position heading into the far turn under new jockey Garrett Gomez. Upon entering the stretch, he was kicked into overdrive, spurting away to a daylight lead and then continued to the wire. Dunkirk had accomplished much in a relatively short amount of time. And yet, even more would be asked of him the following month, as he would make his stakes debut in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
In my opinion, the Florida Derby was a two-horse affair between Quality Road and Dunkirk. A sense of urgency was present for Dunkirk to win the Florida Derby as he had not won a penny of graded stakes money. A win would ensure him a spot in the Kentucky Derby. A second-place finish, or worse in the race, would place him on the bubble. Dunkirk not only had to beat six rivals in the Florida Derby, but he had a significant speed bias to overcome as well. His off-the-pace running style would not be flattered by the prevailing bias, and he would be disadvantaged by a lack of pace in the race as well. Also, he had never faced a horse that was even close to the caliber of Quality Road. But, Dunkirk didn’t know all that. When Gomez ‘chirped’ to him halfway down the Gulfstream Park backstretch, almost instantaneously, Dunkirk was in full stride. He made up ground so rapidly that jockey John Velasquez, who was aboard Quality Road was caught off guard as Dunkirk gained a brief, but tenuous lead. However, Quality Road was nowhere near done. The eventual winner responded readily when asked to quicken, slowly edging away from Dunkirk in the final furlong to register a 1 3/4 length victory. Dunkirk acquitted himself quite well in defeat. In fact, it was his best effort to date, despite finishing second, he gave away a huge tactical edge to the winner over a speed-biased track. His sustained bid from the backstretch to the furlong marker virtually sapped all the energy out of him, and he could not complete what he started, despite giving it his all. Of course he was tired ‘pulling up’ after the race. He had just run the race of his life in just his third career effort, and he was playing ‘catch-up’ due to an unscheduled late start.
Following the Florida Derby, Quality Road was going to be my selection to win the Kentucky Derby. I felt he had the most upside of all his three year old rivals. He possessed excellent tactical speed, a pedigree to handle the 1 ¼ mile distance, and a top trainer in Jimmy Jerkens calling the shots. Unfortunately, for Quality Road, and his connections, he developed a quarter crack in his right front foot shortly after the Florida Derby, which made his status for the Derby uncertain. A second quarter crack was spotted less than two weeks before the big dance. On the Monday before the "Run for the Roses", Jerkins declared him out of the race. With the likely favorite on the sidelines, the big money would be spread out between Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, and Pioneerof the Nile. I knew where my money was going, and that was on Dunkirk. My reasoning was simple. If I felt that Quality Road was the best three year old, and Dunkirk ran a strong second to him, despite his lack of seasoning, any improvement would be more than enough to handle what I felt were a bunch of mediocre three year olds!
Dunkirk arrived at Churchill Downs the Tuesday before the Derby. I had heard from a reliable source that he acted up badly when schooling in the paddock the following day. I was concerned about this behavior, and hoped that he would become more relaxed as he got more acclimated with his new surroundings. I did get my chance on Saturday, as I watched intently when Dunkirk was led in to his stall to be saddled. He showed no signs of being unsettled and at no point did he fight his handlers. Once the tack was put on, and he was led into the walking ring to circle around his admirers, Dunkirk took in all sights very calm and collected. I felt that he was now ready to do battle with his eighteen rivals.
As a result of intermittent showers on Friday, which became heavier throughout the evening, the main track was listed sloppy on Saturday. The forecast called for more rain throughout the day, but it never materialized. Without any sun, and cool weather throughout the afternoon, the track never dried out. When the Derby rolled around, it was evident that the field would be running over a very tricky surface. The track was saturated with water and very heavy to the hooves running over it. It is track conditions like this, which plays havoc to form. Horses either relish the goo or hate it. In the case of the 50-1 upset winner Mine That Bird, who took to the track like a fish takes to water, the rest of the field, who were left in his wake, were just spinning their wheels over it. On first glance, you might think that Dunkirk fit this profile, but on closer inspection, it was not the slop that did him in, it was his journey, and it was horrific from the start. As soon as the gate opened, Dunkirk stumbled badly and almost went down. Jockey Edgar Prado had to hold on for dear life not to fall off, but his uncanny riding skills, allowed him to stay aboard, and get Dunkirk back on stride. As he approached the first turn, Prado had to put on the brakes as he was forced to take up when squeezed between horses. Dunkirk found himself towards the back of the pack. He was able to launch a mild rally, approaching the far turn, but it was short lived. The best he could do was run eleventh, in a “better than it looked” performance.
Dunkirk’s connections showed no interest in running him in the Preakness two weeks later. Instead he would ship back to his home base at Belmont Park to prepare for the Belmont Stakes. It took only sixteen days to recover from this hard effort. Dunkirk worked 4 furlongs on May 18. His time of: 47 1/5 breezing, was the quickest of sixty horses who worked the same distance that morning. He was back on his game and ready to redeem himself.
What should we expect from Dunkirk in the Belmont Stakes? He was my selection to win the Kentucky Derby and he will once again be my choice to earn top honors in the third leg of the Triple Crown. The Belmont Stakes is considered The Test of Champions. The 1 ½ mile distance is uncharted waters for all three years. Many talented horses that have looked like sure winners with an eighth of a mile to the finish line, simply run out of steam. The Belmont Stakes has proven not to be kind to deep closers, like Mine That Bird, who figure to be overbet off his Derby win and a fast closing second in the Preakness. Many people will believe that if he can make up so much ground at a shorter distance, then he should benefit the longer he goes. Horses that have tactical speed, win most Belmont’s, especially if they can relax early on in the race, and receive a well timed ride, as they make their move to the lead. Those who are racing towards the back of the pack expend too much energy to catch up. Because of the distance, Dunkirk will race in mid pack, and make his move on the far turn. He has a long stride that will benefit from the wide sweeping turns at Belmont, in contrast to the tighter turns, like he would have had to negotiate at Pimlico in the Preakness. Trainer Todd Pletcher is making a jockey change to John Velazquez, who is Pletchers’ main go to rider. Velazquez has not been aboard Dunkirk before. He had ridden Quality Road to victory in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, in preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher hooked up with Velazquez to win the 2007 Belmont Stakes aboard the filly Rags to Riches, who then upset two time horse of the year Curlin.
6 CHARITABLE MAN 3/1 If you are looking for a stranger to back in the Belmont Stakes, Charitable Man fits the bill. In a year where the three year old crop is at best just an average one, a fresh horse, which has not been put through the rigors of the Triple Crown trail, must be respected. When you also throw into the mix that Charitable Man has excellent tactical speed, is based at Belmont Park, and is trained by one of the finest horseman in the country, it just adds to his allure. Charitable Man could not have been more impressive when he won his debut last August at Saratoga. Right from the start, he zipped to the lead, put away pace pressure on the far turn, and drew off to a convincing win in very fast time. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin thought so much of Charitable Man’s victory, that in his first start at Belmont Park he quickly moved him into stakes company in the Grade 2 Futurity. Bet down to the 7-5 favorite, he did not disappoint. Despite scoring by only one length, his win was much more impressive than it looked on paper. In his debut, Charitable Man went wire to wire. In the futurity, he was taken back towards the rear of the pack in a seven horse field. On the far turn, jockey Alan Garcia let him loose with a wide sweeping move, and within an instant, Charitable Man inhaled his competition. He needed only a strong hand,urging to post his second impressive victory. Two weeks after the Futurity, McLaughlin discovered the colt had a saucer fracture in his shin. This untimely injury required surgery and a screw had to be inserted in his leg. It was removed in early December. His rehabilitation took place in the pool (called an Aqua-ciser). Soon,Charitable Man was on his way to a complete recovery. He returned to training at the end of January. It wasn’t long after, that his connections began to get Derby fever.
Charitable Man did most of his training at Palm Meadows in Florida. Each workout was stronger than the previous one. He had accumulated a $150,000 in graded earnings, based on his win in the Futurity as a two year old, which put him in the running for a starting berth in the Kentucky Derby. All he needed was to hit the board in the Grade 1 Bluegrass at Keeneland, to secure his spot in the gate. McLaughlin knew that it would be a tough task for Charitable Man to win a Grade 1 race off a seven month layoff and an injury which could have been a career ending one. When he drew post nine, his prospects became dimmer. Time was running out, so there was no other recourse but to run. Charitable Man had never run over a synthetic surface, but a few weeks prior to the Bluegrass, he was shipped to Ocala (OBS), and was able to train over it. He showed a fondness for the surface, which gave his connections confidence that he could handle it at Keeneland. Nevertheless, many horses work well over synthetic surfaces,but, don’t respond the same way on race day. Right from the start in the Bluegrass, Charitable Man was hung out very wide, and could make no impact when asked to run on the far turn. He ended up running seventh, beaten nearly eight lengths. At first glance, it did not appear that coming off a race like that, would inspire much confidence, that he was ready to be competitive in the Derby. However, McLaughlin had a far different opinion. Jockey Garcia said right from the start that Charitable Man could not handle the surface. He came out of the race in excellent shape. Owner Bill Warren agreed with McLaughlin that it would be wise to pass the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and instead point for the Belmont Stakes. They would use the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 9 as a “key” stepping stone towards their ultimate goal. McLaughlin never wavered in his confidence. In the days leading up to the race, he believed that Charitable Man was going to bounce back in a big way. True to his word, he got just what he was looking for, a decisive victory over six other rivals, which would set him up beautifully for the Belmont four weeks later. Personally, I felt that he sat a perfect trip, inheriting the lead from a very tired pacesetter in mid stretch. The second place finisher Imperial Council, came back to run a dismal eighth in the Shadwell Met Mile on Memorial Day.
What should we expect from Charitable Man in the Belmont Stakes? There are too many positives to dismiss his chances to run a winning race. He will have to take another big step forward off his win in the Peter Pan, but the verdict is still out on how good he really is. Clearly Charitable Man is a “live” wild card for reasons mentioned earlier. With the exception of Miner’s Escape, who I would consider “cheap speed”, he will have the perfect target to run at. If he can open a nice lead turning for home, he will have a tactical advantage over the closers. If he can stay the grueling 1 ½ mile distance, his chances for a mild upset becomes that much better. His pedigree says he should be able to. His sire Lemon Drop Kid, won the 1999 Belmont Stakes. Kiaran McLaughlin also has a Belmont victory to his credit, training Jazil to win the 2006 Belmont, despite having just a maiden win to his credit. I will be using Charitable Man on all my tickets.
7 MINE THAT BIRD 2/1 If you told me before the Kentucky Derby that Mine That Bird would upset the field, run second in the Preakness, and go off the favorite in the Belmont Stakes, I would think you were out of your mind and then some. Mine That Bird had shown nothing in his three year old form to consider him a viable contender in the Derby. It was just a matter of how far back he would be at the finish. When he crossed the wire in front, leaving the rest of the field in his wake, I looked up at the tote board thinking he was 99-1. When I noticed he was just 50-1, I was stunned, thinking that maybe someone knew something that I didn’t. When it turned out that the owner and trainer did not bet a dime, and that the connections who owned Mine That Bird prior to selling him, bet $10.00 across the board, his low price could only be a result of Calvin Borel being aboard. Borel is a fan favorite at Churchill Downs. He had won the Kentucky Oaks the day before aboard Rachel Alexandra, as well as several races on the undercard on Friday and Saturday. I, like many others, thought his easy win in the Derby was a result of Mine That Bird relishing the sloppy track, closing up the inside, which was the best part of the track that day, and running by very tired horses that disliked the going. For all those reasons, I picked against him in the Preakness, even though I did use him underneath Rachel Alexandra in the trifecta on my stakes sheet. I must admit, that Mine That Bird fooled me again. It was a no brainer that Borel was going to ride Rachel over the Bird if she was entered in the Preakness. When owner Jess Jackson gave the green light to run, Mike Smith was chosen as the new rider. Everyone knew that similar closing tactics would be employed. No one can argue that Rachel was a deserving winner. Actually, I felt she ran a better race than Mine That Bird, as she did all the dirty work to help his late kick. Rachel had to be hard used when the gate opened, in order to secure a good position from her outside post. She chased a quick pace, and then had to make a strong middle move to take command midway on the far turn. From that point on to the finish, Rachel had to run very hard. Not unexpectedly, she was a very tired horse in deep stretch, but was able to hold on because of her ability and a big heart. It was likely that Rachel would have been run down by the Bird if the race was a bit longer and if Mike Smith was not forced to steady behind a wall of horses approaching the stretch while in full flight. Smith had to swing out very wide into the stretch and the Bird took off again to go after the filly and simply ran out of ground. He made a believer out of me. Even in defeat, the Bird impressed me as much as he did in the Derby. In the Preakness, he was able to duplicate his form over a dry surface, rallying outside of horses and overcoming adversity, which was a totally different set of circumstances from what he was faced with in Kentucky. What the Preakness also proved to me, was that Mine That Bird was on the improve and the rest of his male counterparts were not only average at best (with the exception of Musket Man, who runs his A race every time he sets foot on the track), but were “over the top” and in need of a rest.
The million dollar question is how Mine That Bird became the best three year old male in the country in just a matter of a few weeks, when he had proven to be several notches below in ability than what he was going to face in the Kentucky Derby. The only way I can explain it is twofold. He peaked at the right time, and responded to totally different riding tactics than what he was used to running in all his prior starts. Mine That Bird has proven without a doubt, that he wants to be taken far back early in the race and then begin his closing run midway on the far turn. What is amazing about the Bird is that he can sustain his rally for as long as he does. When every horse begins to tire in deep stretch, he continues to fly on.
What can we expect from Mine That Bird in the Belmont Stakes? With the exception of Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy and the new shooter Charitable Man, any of the other horses would be a surprise if they were to win. Mine That Bird has earned the right to be the choice of the public. Because the race is 1 ½ miles, there is a big question mark whether his rivals can handle the distance. I don’t feel that this will be the case at all with the Bird. Nevertheless, as the favorite, I prefer to go with Dunkirk, who I feel was eliminated early on in the Derby. If he runs the race I expect he will, then Mine That Bird will have to snatch him from behind. It’s very possible, but my money says he won’t. My opinion may turn out to be wrong, but always remember, you can still make money if you wager correctly. That is why I provide you my wagering strategies. I am not so foolish that I will not put the Bird on top on some of my suggested tickets.
1 CHOCOLATE CANDY 10/1 If you feel that Pioneerof the Nile was a major contender to win the Kentucky Derby, than you would have had to consider Chocolate Candy as well. These horses have faced each other twice. Pioneer won both times. They met as 2 year olds in the Cash Call Futurity, a race in which Pioneer defeated Candy by 1 ½ lengths. They met again in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Candy rallied from off the pace to fall a length short. Despite the defeat, I felt he ran just as well as his rival .The complexion of the race changed dramatically when speedballs Z Day and The Pamplemousse were both late scratches. They would have ensured fast fractions which would have benefitted a horse like Chocolate Candy, who likes to lay back, and make one late run. Confronted with a new pace scenario in which the early fractions would be much slower, Candy was faced with a much tougher task in trying to run down the heavy favorite Pioneerof the Nile. As the field approached the stretch, Candy was last of seven. He sustained a strong wide rally, but simply ran out of ground and had to settle for second. His trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who is the perennial “king” of racing in northern California, indicated in the days leading up to the race that Chocolate Candy would not be at his best. He just wanted to get a strong race into Candy to set him up for a peak performance the first Saturday in May. Hollendorfer got just what he wanted. The question being: could Chocolate Candy be considered a major player? My main concern was that Chocolate Candy had never raced outside of California, and all nine starts had been on synthetic surfaces. Despite running on conventional dirt for the first time at Churchill, as well as over a sloppy track, he ran very well. Chocolate was squeezed back soon after the start, finding himself quickly in seventeenth place. He rallied through traffic for a fifth place finish.
What should we expect from Chocolate Candy in the Belmont Stakes? Hollendorfer wisely passed the Preakness. He shipped Chocolate to Belmont a few days after the race to prepare for the "Test of Champions'. He has acclimated himself very well since arriving. Candy has worked three times over the track. I love the spacing of his morning drills. He has worked 4 furlongs, 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs. His final workout was an easy 5 furlongs last Monday. It was by design that the emphasis was clearly on building up his stamina. His pedigree points out that Chocolate Candy should be well suited to the 1 ½ mile distance. His sire Candy Ride won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 1 ¼ miles. His dam traces back to Triple Crown winner Affirmed. His trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, whom I have always had great respect for, has trained several Grade 1 winners such as King Glorious, winner of the 1988 Hollywood Futurity and the 1989 Haskell. Heatseeker won the 2008 Santa Anita Handicap. Hysterical Lady ran a close second in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Hollendorfer has also won two Kentucky Oaks with Lite Lite and Pike Place Dancer. Obviously, he has shown an uncanny knack at winning prestigious races with northern California based horses. Chocolate Candy likes to be taken in hand early in the race and settle into his nice fluid stride before making his run. In the Belmont, he will be ridden for the first time by Garrett Gomez, who in my opinion, is the finest rider in the country. He is very good on front runners, but Gomez is at his best riding horses that rally from off the pace. I would not be shocked if Chocolate Candy wins the Belmont, but an “in the money” finish is more likely. He will be used in my exactas and trifectas.
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12th BEL 6f (Turf) MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $51,000. ( 7:10)/ 6:10/ 5:10/ 4:10
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 STORM HOPE 5/2 Has shown a lot more ability on grass than anyone else in this field, rallying to hit the board in both turf tries last year at age 2 while beaten a total of less than 3 lengths in those two races. He's probably grown and matured quite a bit since then and now returns with some sharp works for good layoff trainer Barclay Tagg. Tagg is having a great meet so far, with 10 winners from 42 starters, and lures top jockey Dominguez to ride, a sign that Storm Hope is well-meant first time off the layoff. His May 22 gate work also hints at more early speed than he showed last year.
6 GLOBEMASTER 10/1 Debuts for hot trainer Angel Penna Jr., who's won with 5 of his first 12 starters at this meet, mostly turf horses. Colt is bred top and bottom for grass but Penna's runners usually need a race or two before showing their best stuff.
3 WESTERN CONNECTION 4/1 Pressed the pace most of the way in his lone career start, with was a turf route over this course 7+ months ago. Gets a big positive rider change for this second career start to Alan Garcia, who's won 3 of 7 for trainer John Morrison in 2008-09, and he should have this gelding forwardly placed in a field without much proven early speed.
2 MONASTIR 8/1 Has hit the board in his last two starts, both 'off the turf' events that show that his connections have been eager to try him on grass for a while now. He showed improved early speed last time out and could sit fairly close to an expected mild pace. Turf breeding is okay.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (13)AFRIKANER (14)AFRICAN KNIGHT (16)GRACEFUL AFLEET (5)BRAVE SOUL
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13th BEL 6f (IT) Clm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $32,000. ( 7:45)/ 6:45/ 5:45/ 4:45
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10) Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
4 MANCHILD 2/1 Makes it two in a row for a hot barn. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
2 DRIVEN BY ROYAL 8/1 Speedy gelding will lead them as far as he can. He just failed to last May 8 in an off-the-turf race, losing by just a head at this class level, although he really had no excuse in that small field. Perhaps he'll fare a bit better on grass, as 2 of his 3 siblings to race on turf won.
7 CITY SNEAKERS 6/1 Came off a 6-month layoff and posted a game maiden victory for Linda Rice, who is the undisputed leader in turf sprints on this circuit. City Sneakers ran okay in two prior turf sprints but may be a better runner now at age 2, and certainly can improve second off the layoff. His versatility is also a plus.
8 MARRA MARRA 12/1 Ran better than appears when moving to turf April 25. He chased a blazing early pace in that turf route and was right there at the quarter pole before throwing in the towel. This cutback to a sprint is what he needs and he's won 1 of 2 prior sprints, although they were on dirt.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (4)MANCHILD (14)WANDAS DOUBLE (16)LINCOLN ROAD (2)DRIVEN BY ROYAL
#2 CONVOCATION (Race 3) Began his career earlier this year during the heart of the Gulfstream Park meeting, on a day when there was an intense speed bias. Son of top sire Pulpit broke slowly and sat in the back half of the field early on. Proceeded to make a steady run while wide and finished well for second against the grain of the track. Off that effort he was made the odds-on favorite in his second career start, stretching out to two turns. Breaking from a tough outside post, he proceeded to lose his best chance by ducking out sharply at the break and spotting the field about five lengths. He then entered the short run into the first turn well behind the field and very wide under new rider Javier Castellano. He continued to suffer a wide trip throughout and then proceeded to bear out turning for home, an indication of a soundness problem. Wrapped up late, he was only beaten 3-1/2 lengths for second despite a terrible trip coupled with an awful performance. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens learned his craft from one of the greatest horseman of all time, his father Allen, and as a result he doesn't make many mistakes. Jerkens gave this $340,000 purchase a freshening to fix whatever was ailing him and brought him back off a steady work pattern on May 2. If not for a brutal trip in which he was boxed in while stuck down on the inside for most of the running, he likely would have won over a very good field. Today he gets a favorable rider switch to Kent Desormeaux, and he should be set for a sharp performance with a race over the track while making his second start off the break. His best effort should win this race.
#6 FABULOUS STRIKE (Race 6) Cuts back to his best distance off a very game effort in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap, a 7-furlong race that is really a furlong beyond what he prefers. In that race he set a mercurial pace, put away his rival, and wasn't caught until deep stretch by an opportunistic closer. At 6 furlongs this son of top sire Smart Strike has won 9 of 14 races lifetime, and he has had very legitimate excuses in some of his rare losses such as the Breeders' Sprint last year, which was contested over synthetic track. This gelding has been training like a monster in the morning for trainer Todd Beattie, who wins at nearly a 30% clip with horses off 46-90 day layoffs. Three for five over Big Sandy, Fabulous Strike figures to sit a favorable trip pressing the pace from the outside under regular rider Ramon Dominguez. I look for him to take the lead turning for home and prove difficult to catch in the lane.
#8 JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE (Race 9) Was expected to present a challenge to the superfilly Rachel Alexandra in the G1 Kentucky Oaks, but was scratched the morning of that race when the track came up too wet. Streaking filly has won five straight races, including two Grade 2 events, all by relatively large margins, and she shows no signs of losing her sharp form. Since the scratch from the Ky Oaks she's shipped back to New York and has been working great over this track, where she broke her maiden last Oct 13. She's versatile enough to press or stalk the pace and could be sitting on a top performance while forced to sit 'on hold' for more than 2 months since her last race.
#4 MANCHILD (Race 13) NOTE: This play is for turf OR dirt. Although I much prefer this gelding if this race stays on the turf, I also like his chances if moved to dirt. He's raced for a claiming tag just twice so far in his career, and the results are a win and a close 2nd place finish. He raced in a turf sprint for the first time May 15 while also dropping in with claimers for just the second time, and the result was a comfortable win over this course and distance in solid time for the class level. He also had his blinkers removed for that race, but they didn't dull his early speed, as he pressed the pace from the start before taking over mid-stretch. Today he's very realistically spotted in hi first try against winners by hot trainer Carlos Martin, who's winning better than 30% so far at this meet. Winning jockey John Velazquez remains aboard and should have Manchild in a similar pace-pressing position today as they break outside of probable pacesetter Driven By Royal.
1st BEL 6f Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $53,000. (11:35)/10:35/ 9:35/ 8:35
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Race (1-3), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 DIXIELAND STAR 2/1 Returns from an 11-month layoff for hot trainer John Kimmel, who's winning nearly 30% at this meet. 4yo son of top NY sprint sire Hook and Ladder has run some strong races, better than the rest of this modest field has been able to produce, and his good 2nd place finish in his debut shows that he can fire fresh. He's hit the exacta in 3 of 4 starts over this track and regular rider Eibar Coa is back aboard.
3 INGER MANAGEMENT 5/2 Has speed to lead or press the pace and isn't really stepping up in class much off a atarter allowance win at Philly Park on May 4. The horse that finished 2nd behind him returned to finish 2nd in a $100,000 race at Penn National. Inger Management has finished 2nd in both prior starts at this NY bred allowance level, and if Dixieland Star isn't fit and ready enough off the layoff then this gelding should prevail.
9 BLOW UP 6/1 Added Lasix May 16 for his first start over this track and won by 5 widening lengths at 8-1. He need not improve all that much to contend in this spot and should factor for at least a minor award with his improving form.
2 NIGHT IN TUNISA 12/1 Won easily the only prior time that he made this turf-to-dirt move, and the win was over this track and distance. Should improve second start off the short layoff, with three more good works since the May 1 race.
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2nd BEL 7fAlwOClm $75,000 3yo and up, Purse: $55,000. (12:05)/11:05/10:05/ 9:05
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (2-4), Pick 4 Races (2-5),daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
6 MUCH THE BEST 8/5 $400,000 2yo purchase looks like he can clear to the lead fairly easily and never look back. Blinkers went on April 18 and he took off on the lead, setting too fast a pace but holding clear well into the final furlong at this same 7F trip. The blinkers came off May 16 and he was able to sit more patiently in 2nd. Today hot trainer Mike Hushion wants to sharpen that speed again so the hood is back on, and they have the good fortune of catching a field without another real front-runner.
3 SPEIGHT OF HAND 7/2 Returned from a 5-month layoff with a dominant win at this tough 7F distance on april 10, then ran a big race again May 10 when stretching out to 1-1/16 miles. Could be set for a top effort in his third start off the layoff and should have plenty of stamina on this cutback in distance. Trainer Chad Brown is 5 for 15 at this meet and excels with this route-to-sprint move, winning 22% in 2008-09.
7 JUST BEN 3/1 Chased Much The Best May 16 and finished right behind him in a good effort. Trouble-prone colt has yet to have a really good trip, mostly his own doing, yet has still shown plenty of ability and potential. Should be forwardly placed under John Velazquez.
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3rd BEL 1m MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $54,000. (12:37)/11:37/10:37/ 9:37
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 CONVOCATION 3/1 Gets the job done with a clean trip. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
10 ALLRIGHTSRESERVED 7/2 Looks like the main threat to Convocation as he makes back to back starts without a layoff for the first time in his career, a sign that he may be sounder and fitter than ever. He's finished a close 2nd in his last two starts, both at today's distance, and has shown versatility to lead or sit just off the pace.
11 WANTED ALIVE 5/1 Raced just once at age 2, finishing 4th in a very strong, 'key' race behind subsequent graded stakes winner Musket Man. Showed improvement when returning from a 6-month layoff May 9 and finished a close 2nd. Dominguez stays aboard.
12 FRENCHONIONSOUP 10/1 Found his best stride too late in his 4th place debut after a somewhat slow start. Adds Lasix now, a 25% winning angle for Bruce Levine, who's also won with 24% of his second time starters in 2008-09. Excellent wet track breeding.
6 WOODFORD MANHATTAN 15/1 Led all but the final yards when losing by a head in a fast race April 17. The winner of that event returned to win his next start as well. Didn't handle the turf 'experiment' May 16, but Nick Zito is not known for winning on grass. Should be set to rebound while moving to dirt.
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4th BEL 1 1/16m (IT)AlwOClm $50,000 3yo and up, Purse: $58,000. ( 1:10)/12:10/11:10/10:10
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6), Daily Double Wa
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 EXPANSION 3/1 Enters in career-best form after finishing 2nd twice in a row at this class level. His late-running style was compromised by a slow pace in those two races on April 4 and May 14 but he still finished powerfully for the place. He's hit the exacta in 7 of 9 lifetime starts on turf and lost by just a head in his only prior try over non-firm ground. Gets a much better post than he had last time out.
4 UNCLE INDY 5/1 Regally-bred horse is by one of the best sires of all time and out of the dam Auntie Mame, who was a G1 turf winner for this same trainer. Angel Penna Jr. has been on a tear at this meet, winning with 5 of 12 starters, and is at his best with turf horses. Uncle Indy has won two in a row and comes off his best career race, a clear win in very fast time where he flew thru his final furlong in :11-2/5. Cornelio Velasquez has been aboard for both victories and has won at a 30% rate when riding for Penna in 2008-09.
1 SPURRED 9/2 Makes his second start off a 10-month layoff and has been given time to recover from a game win at this distance in that race. He showed more tactical speed than he had in the past and loved the non-firm ground. He's always done well over non-firm turf and should love the footing today. Consistent 5yo has hit the board in 10 of 12 starts on grass, including 4 wins, and can save ground from post 1.
10 RADICAL SABBATICAL 8/1 Should be close to an expected mild pace despite his tough outside post. He has a win and a 2nd in two prior starts on Belmont turf and also likes non-firm ground.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (11)EVEN RAISE (12)JACK ON THE ROCKS (13)MR UNSTOPPABLE (5)IZANAGI
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5th BEL 1 1/16m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $56,000. ( 1:50)/12:50/11:50/10:50
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
3 GET STORMY 6/1 Should have won both of his last two starts but had trouble each time. He loomed home free March 31 but ducked in sharply and lost his rider when leading by 5 lengths in the final furlong. He returned May 20 and only lost by 1/2 length despite being blocked for much of the stretch, finishing 2nd to a 4-5 winner. With any kind of reasonable racing room he could have won. Shows a great bullet work over Belmont turf on May 31 and should retain his sharp form. Now all he needs is a little luck.
5 LE GRAND CRU 10/1 Finished close behind Get Stormy on May 20 while making his first start on turf and first start in a route race. It was a very good performance and now he adds blinkers. He's bred top and bottom to run all day and could land on the lead with the addition of the hood.
13 HANGINGBYATHREAD 6/1 Might have been the top choice if not for the bad post that he'll have if he gets in from the AE list. He got very good at the end of last year, with a 5-length win over soft ground and then a tough loss by a neck and a nose at 25-1 in a stakes race. He returned from the 6-month layoff with a dominant win in fast time under a hand ride and should only improve second start back for a hot trainer.
10 SETTE E MEZZO 4/1 Won off a short layoff April 3 and then finished 3rd May 14 despite a bad trip. He was close to the pace that day but then fell back to 6th on the far turn when forced to check. He then re-rallied and made up about 4 lengths in the final furlong. Benefits from this slightly longer trip.
4 SO IT GOES 6/1 Versatile gelding rated in last place to the far turn and then finished fast to get up for 2nd at 18-1 May 14 when returning from an 8-month layoff. He's shown more tactical speed in the past and could be forwardly placed today while breaking from a much better post. He won his only prior start at this distance, which was also his only prior start on non-firm ground, and did so at 26-1.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (5)LE GRAND CRU (11)PRECURSOR (1A)HAITIAN SENSATION (15)OVEREXTENDED (14)JOE CORRIGAN
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6th BEL 6f Grade II 3yo and up, Purse: $250,000. ( 2:33)/ 1:33/12:33/11:33
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (6-8), Pick 6 Races (6-11), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
6 FABULOUS STRIKE 2/1 Returns to his winning ways while cutting back to his best distance. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
3 TWO STEP SALSA 3/1 Is undefeated and untested in two races since being privately purchased by mighty Godolphin Stable. His victory in the G2, $1 million Godolphin Mile on March 28 was impressive and he's been freshened since, with some fast recent works over this track. He's 3 for 3 lifetime in races at today's 6F distance and has the ability to win if Smart Strike is not at his best. 4yo colt likes the lead but has shown in his last two wins that he can also press or stalk the pace.
1 BENNY THE BULL 5/2 Last year's sprint champion was retired with a minor injury, then un-retired when that malady cleared up fairly quickly. Nonetheless, he hasn't raced in nearly 11 months, and is using this race as a 'prep' for a return engagement in the Smile Sprint Handicap, a G2 race that he won impressively last year and that capped off his 4 for 4 campaign. He has a powerful late kick and should get an honest pace to rally into, but isn't expected to be fully 'cranked up' for this race.
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7th BEL 1m (Turf) Grade I 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $400,000. ( 3:15)/ 2:15/ 1:15/12:15
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Grand Slam Races (7-10),daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 MY PRINCESS JESS 5/1 I like this filly's chances at an upset as she makes her second start off a 6-month layoff and is expected to get the kind of non-firm ground that she loves. She was a G2 winner over soft turf last year at Saratoga, and now at age 4 she seems to have matured and improved further. Her May 2 victory off the layoff was extremely impressive because she had to rally from behind a very slow pace after also waiting in traffic for racing room. Her final 5/16 of a mile in :29 flat over the 'good' turf was outstanding and improvement is likely today second start back. She's shown good tactical speed in the past and will probably get the jump on expected heavy favorite Forever Together.
5 FOREVER TOGETHER 6/5 Last year's female turf champion finkshed a close 3rd in this race at 44-1 in 2008 and has since won 4 of 5 starts, including three Grace 1 events. She returned from a layoff for her 2009 debut April 11 and picked up where she left off, roaring home for a relatively easy win in the G2 Jenny Wiley. She's been pointed here since and is the proven class of the field, but the possible slow pace will work against her, and she's probably better at distances longer than a mile.
1 CARRIBEAN SUNSET 6/1 Finished 2nd to My Princess Jess May 2 with a strong finish in a race she probably needed off the 7-month layoff. She's a 3-time Group Stakes winner and is also Group 1 stakes-placed, and should improve second off the layoff for top turf trainer Clement. He's won at a 36% rate second off of similar layoffs in 2008-09 and this filly is proven to love softer ground.
2 RAW SILK 10/1 Without much early speed in this race this filly could be allowed to set a mild pace at this distance where she's 2 for 2 lifetime. She won in very fast time April 11 off the 5-month layoff and should be even fitter second time back. She's okay on non-firm ground, but is probably better over firm footing.
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8th BEL 7f Grade II 3yo, Purse: $250,000. ( 3:59)/ 2:59/ 1:59/12:59
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (8-10), Pick 4 Races (8-11), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 THIS ONES FOR PHIL 7/2 Has run three huge races in four attempts since moving to the barn of Richard Dutrow Jr. Stalker won in blazing time Jan 24 an also won the G2 Swale at today's 7F distance when moved up via disqualification after being interfered with during a fierce stretch battle. Most recently he was badly blocked as the winner rolled by in the G3 Withers, then put in a resolute rally too late. With clear sailing he could have won. Reunites with Garrett Gomez, who was aboard for the Swale win, and should sit a good stalking trip a few lengths back.
8 HULL 3/1 Undefeated colt has won all 3 starts by widening margins but will face his toughest test by far today. Projects to press the pace from his outside post under regular jockey Mena and should be prominant all of the way while shortening up a bit in distance.
4 MUNNINGS 4/1 $1.7 million 2yo purchase showed much potential at age 2 when he won his debut in very fast time and then placed in two Grade 1 events, including the Champagne over this track. He came off a 6-month layoff with a big effort in a very fast race May 1 and should move forward today for top trainer Pletcher. Stalker projects to get a fast pace to rally into and he likes this 7F distance.
6 HELLO BROADWAY 12/1 Price play finished 2nd in the G2 Hutcheson in his only prior start at 7F. Most recently he ran better than appears in the 9-furlong Peter Pan over this track when he added blinkers and tore off to set a suicidal pace. The blinkers come off today and he should have plenty of stamina while probably reverting to stalking tactics.
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9th BEL 1m Grade I 3yo Fillies, Purse: $300,000. ( 4:44)/ 3:44/ 2:44/ 1:44
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10) Pick 3 Races (9-11), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE 8/5 Finds a good spot to notch her first G1 victory. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
7 DREAM PLAY 6/1 Has been improving all year for Kiaran McLaughlin while playing 'second fiddle' to stablemate Justwhistledixie. Loved the initial stretch to a route on April 11 when she led all the way to win in fast time in the 1-mile Comely, also around one turn. She's been pointed here since, and if for some reason Justwhistledixie doesn't bring her best stuff, then this filly looks like the most likely upsetter.
9 FOUR GIFTS 6/1 Stalker won her second graded stakes race May 2 when she returned from a freshening to win the Eight Belles at a similar distance at Churchill Downs. She rarely misfires and should get an honest pace to stalk and rally into.
5 DOREMIFASOLLATIDO 6/1 Has 2 wins and 2 2nds over this track, including a strong victory in the G2 Matron last Sept 13. Versatile filly got a useful 'prep' May 15 off the 7-month layoff and was not abused when well clear of 3rd behind an odds-on winner who ran a hole in the wind. Should improve second time back for high-percentage trainer Jimmy Jerkens but must show that she can be effective in a race beyond 7F.
2 GABBY'S GOLDEN GAL 15/1 Set a very fast pace in her route debut March 29 but had plenty left in the tank to run away from her field in the stretch and win by 13 lengths in fast time. Faced a much tougher group in the Ky Oaks May 1 and wilted in the final furlong after leading most of the way. Should benefit from this cutback to a mile and could get very brave up front at big odds.
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10th BEL 1 1/4m (IT) Grade I 3yo and up, Purse: $400,000. ( 5:34)/ 4:34/ 3:34/ 2:34
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (10-12), Pick 4 Races (10-13),daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
5 GIO PONTI 7/2 Has been a classy and versatile turf horse from the start for top turf trainer Christophe Clement. He was a turf stakes winner at age 2 and a multiple graded turf stakes winner at age 3, including the G2 Virginia Derby at today's distance. However, now at age 4 he seems to have reached a new level. His powerful victory from far off the pace in the G1 Kilroe Mile last time out was his best race yet as he showed that his tremendous late turn of foot is as effective at a mile as it is at a mile and a quarter. With three months between starts he enters this race fresh and fit, with a history of running very well when fresh, including a victory in the G3 Hill Prince on Belmont turf a year ago to the day. Ramon Dominguez rode him last time out, but no one knows Gio Ponti better than Garrett Gomez, and he regains the mount today.
1 COURT VISION 4/1 Was a G1 winner at this distance in the Hollywood Derby and should appreciate the stretch out from the 9-furlong G1 Turf Classic on May 2. In that race he finished fast go get up for 3rd after trailing a mild pace. He's been pointed to this race by Hall Of Famer Bill Mott since then and hw won his only prior race on Belmont turf, winning the G2 Jamaica over non-firm ground.
12 COWBOY CAL 3/1 Put forth his typical gutsy effort in the G1 Turf Classic May 2 to miss by just a head to multiple G1 winner Einstein while finishing nearly 3 lengths clear of Court Vision in 3rd. This multiple G2 winner almost always runs his heart out and has hit the exacta in 10 of 13 lifetime starts over many different racing surfaces, almost all of them against graded stakes company. The outside post is tough but he has good early speed and should be able to secure a good pressing or stalking position before the first turn.
9 COSMONAUT 6/1 Can lead or sit just off the pace and should move forward in his second start off the 10-month layoff. His May 2 victory was excellent and in fast time over the 'good' turf, and he may be even better over softer footing. This distance is probably longer than his best but if the pace is slow then he can last for a minor award, as he did in his last start before the layoff.
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11th BEL 1 1/2m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $1,000,000. ( 6:27)/ 5:27/ 4:27/ 3:27
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Races (11-13),double Wagers Leg B - Brooklyn/belmont Double
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 DUNKIRK 4/1 Dunkirk did not exactly make an immediate splash in the water. He never had a chance to. This well-bred son of Unbridled’s Song never made it to the races as a two-year-old. Minor shin problems placed his racing career on hold. One has to believe that at some juncture, as a juvenile, this Todd Pletcher trained runner showed some type of promise. So, Dunkirk was given all the time necessary to put that problem behind.
When Dunkirk finally made his belated debut at Gulfstream Park on January 24, he did so with a steady, prolonged, and evenly-spaced, workout regimen at the Palm Meadows training center. To say he was well-prepared would be understated. Despite working out away from prying eyes at Gulfstream Park, Dunkirk was bet down to an 8-5 favoritism. There are some secrets that are not meant to be kept. Overcoming a lethargic start that day, with jockey Edgar Prado aboard, Dunkirk was forced to subsequently steady around the far turn. Undeterred, when he was finally in the clear, he accelerated nicely in the stretch to gain the lead, eventually winning by 5 3/4 lengths under modest encouragement. Dunkirk had lived up to his advanced notices, and even better things lay ahead for him. Dunkirk returned to the races rather quickly, tackling a field of preliminary Allowance runners around two turns on February 19. In addition, he would stretch out to 1 1/8 miles, and would be saddled with an outside post as well. Dispatched as the 6-5 favorite, Dunkirk was impressive once again in victory. A wide trip while losing valuable ground throughout, did nothing to discourage him, as he improved his position heading into the far turn under new jockey Garrett Gomez. Upon entering the stretch, he was kicked into overdrive, spurting away to a daylight lead and then continued to the wire. Dunkirk had accomplished much in a relatively short amount of time. And yet, even more would be asked of him the following month, as he would make his stakes debut in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
In my opinion, the Florida Derby was a two-horse affair between Quality Road and Dunkirk. A sense of urgency was present for Dunkirk to win the Florida Derby as he had not won a penny of graded stakes money. A win would ensure him a spot in the Kentucky Derby. A second-place finish, or worse in the race, would place him on the bubble. Dunkirk not only had to beat six rivals in the Florida Derby, but he had a significant speed bias to overcome as well. His off-the-pace running style would not be flattered by the prevailing bias, and he would be disadvantaged by a lack of pace in the race as well. Also, he had never faced a horse that was even close to the caliber of Quality Road. But, Dunkirk didn’t know all that. When Gomez ‘chirped’ to him halfway down the Gulfstream Park backstretch, almost instantaneously, Dunkirk was in full stride. He made up ground so rapidly that jockey John Velasquez, who was aboard Quality Road was caught off guard as Dunkirk gained a brief, but tenuous lead. However, Quality Road was nowhere near done. The eventual winner responded readily when asked to quicken, slowly edging away from Dunkirk in the final furlong to register a 1 3/4 length victory. Dunkirk acquitted himself quite well in defeat. In fact, it was his best effort to date, despite finishing second, he gave away a huge tactical edge to the winner over a speed-biased track. His sustained bid from the backstretch to the furlong marker virtually sapped all the energy out of him, and he could not complete what he started, despite giving it his all. Of course he was tired ‘pulling up’ after the race. He had just run the race of his life in just his third career effort, and he was playing ‘catch-up’ due to an unscheduled late start.
Following the Florida Derby, Quality Road was going to be my selection to win the Kentucky Derby. I felt he had the most upside of all his three year old rivals. He possessed excellent tactical speed, a pedigree to handle the 1 ¼ mile distance, and a top trainer in Jimmy Jerkens calling the shots. Unfortunately, for Quality Road, and his connections, he developed a quarter crack in his right front foot shortly after the Florida Derby, which made his status for the Derby uncertain. A second quarter crack was spotted less than two weeks before the big dance. On the Monday before the "Run for the Roses", Jerkins declared him out of the race. With the likely favorite on the sidelines, the big money would be spread out between Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, and Pioneerof the Nile. I knew where my money was going, and that was on Dunkirk. My reasoning was simple. If I felt that Quality Road was the best three year old, and Dunkirk ran a strong second to him, despite his lack of seasoning, any improvement would be more than enough to handle what I felt were a bunch of mediocre three year olds!
Dunkirk arrived at Churchill Downs the Tuesday before the Derby. I had heard from a reliable source that he acted up badly when schooling in the paddock the following day. I was concerned about this behavior, and hoped that he would become more relaxed as he got more acclimated with his new surroundings. I did get my chance on Saturday, as I watched intently when Dunkirk was led in to his stall to be saddled. He showed no signs of being unsettled and at no point did he fight his handlers. Once the tack was put on, and he was led into the walking ring to circle around his admirers, Dunkirk took in all sights very calm and collected. I felt that he was now ready to do battle with his eighteen rivals.
As a result of intermittent showers on Friday, which became heavier throughout the evening, the main track was listed sloppy on Saturday. The forecast called for more rain throughout the day, but it never materialized. Without any sun, and cool weather throughout the afternoon, the track never dried out. When the Derby rolled around, it was evident that the field would be running over a very tricky surface. The track was saturated with water and very heavy to the hooves running over it. It is track conditions like this, which plays havoc to form. Horses either relish the goo or hate it. In the case of the 50-1 upset winner Mine That Bird, who took to the track like a fish takes to water, the rest of the field, who were left in his wake, were just spinning their wheels over it. On first glance, you might think that Dunkirk fit this profile, but on closer inspection, it was not the slop that did him in, it was his journey, and it was horrific from the start. As soon as the gate opened, Dunkirk stumbled badly and almost went down. Jockey Edgar Prado had to hold on for dear life not to fall off, but his uncanny riding skills, allowed him to stay aboard, and get Dunkirk back on stride. As he approached the first turn, Prado had to put on the brakes as he was forced to take up when squeezed between horses. Dunkirk found himself towards the back of the pack. He was able to launch a mild rally, approaching the far turn, but it was short lived. The best he could do was run eleventh, in a “better than it looked” performance.
Dunkirk’s connections showed no interest in running him in the Preakness two weeks later. Instead he would ship back to his home base at Belmont Park to prepare for the Belmont Stakes. It took only sixteen days to recover from this hard effort. Dunkirk worked 4 furlongs on May 18. His time of: 47 1/5 breezing, was the quickest of sixty horses who worked the same distance that morning. He was back on his game and ready to redeem himself.
What should we expect from Dunkirk in the Belmont Stakes? He was my selection to win the Kentucky Derby and he will once again be my choice to earn top honors in the third leg of the Triple Crown. The Belmont Stakes is considered The Test of Champions. The 1 ½ mile distance is uncharted waters for all three years. Many talented horses that have looked like sure winners with an eighth of a mile to the finish line, simply run out of steam. The Belmont Stakes has proven not to be kind to deep closers, like Mine That Bird, who figure to be overbet off his Derby win and a fast closing second in the Preakness. Many people will believe that if he can make up so much ground at a shorter distance, then he should benefit the longer he goes. Horses that have tactical speed, win most Belmont’s, especially if they can relax early on in the race, and receive a well timed ride, as they make their move to the lead. Those who are racing towards the back of the pack expend too much energy to catch up. Because of the distance, Dunkirk will race in mid pack, and make his move on the far turn. He has a long stride that will benefit from the wide sweeping turns at Belmont, in contrast to the tighter turns, like he would have had to negotiate at Pimlico in the Preakness. Trainer Todd Pletcher is making a jockey change to John Velazquez, who is Pletchers’ main go to rider. Velazquez has not been aboard Dunkirk before. He had ridden Quality Road to victory in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, in preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher hooked up with Velazquez to win the 2007 Belmont Stakes aboard the filly Rags to Riches, who then upset two time horse of the year Curlin.
6 CHARITABLE MAN 3/1 If you are looking for a stranger to back in the Belmont Stakes, Charitable Man fits the bill. In a year where the three year old crop is at best just an average one, a fresh horse, which has not been put through the rigors of the Triple Crown trail, must be respected. When you also throw into the mix that Charitable Man has excellent tactical speed, is based at Belmont Park, and is trained by one of the finest horseman in the country, it just adds to his allure. Charitable Man could not have been more impressive when he won his debut last August at Saratoga. Right from the start, he zipped to the lead, put away pace pressure on the far turn, and drew off to a convincing win in very fast time. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin thought so much of Charitable Man’s victory, that in his first start at Belmont Park he quickly moved him into stakes company in the Grade 2 Futurity. Bet down to the 7-5 favorite, he did not disappoint. Despite scoring by only one length, his win was much more impressive than it looked on paper. In his debut, Charitable Man went wire to wire. In the futurity, he was taken back towards the rear of the pack in a seven horse field. On the far turn, jockey Alan Garcia let him loose with a wide sweeping move, and within an instant, Charitable Man inhaled his competition. He needed only a strong hand,urging to post his second impressive victory. Two weeks after the Futurity, McLaughlin discovered the colt had a saucer fracture in his shin. This untimely injury required surgery and a screw had to be inserted in his leg. It was removed in early December. His rehabilitation took place in the pool (called an Aqua-ciser). Soon,Charitable Man was on his way to a complete recovery. He returned to training at the end of January. It wasn’t long after, that his connections began to get Derby fever.
Charitable Man did most of his training at Palm Meadows in Florida. Each workout was stronger than the previous one. He had accumulated a $150,000 in graded earnings, based on his win in the Futurity as a two year old, which put him in the running for a starting berth in the Kentucky Derby. All he needed was to hit the board in the Grade 1 Bluegrass at Keeneland, to secure his spot in the gate. McLaughlin knew that it would be a tough task for Charitable Man to win a Grade 1 race off a seven month layoff and an injury which could have been a career ending one. When he drew post nine, his prospects became dimmer. Time was running out, so there was no other recourse but to run. Charitable Man had never run over a synthetic surface, but a few weeks prior to the Bluegrass, he was shipped to Ocala (OBS), and was able to train over it. He showed a fondness for the surface, which gave his connections confidence that he could handle it at Keeneland. Nevertheless, many horses work well over synthetic surfaces,but, don’t respond the same way on race day. Right from the start in the Bluegrass, Charitable Man was hung out very wide, and could make no impact when asked to run on the far turn. He ended up running seventh, beaten nearly eight lengths. At first glance, it did not appear that coming off a race like that, would inspire much confidence, that he was ready to be competitive in the Derby. However, McLaughlin had a far different opinion. Jockey Garcia said right from the start that Charitable Man could not handle the surface. He came out of the race in excellent shape. Owner Bill Warren agreed with McLaughlin that it would be wise to pass the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and instead point for the Belmont Stakes. They would use the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 9 as a “key” stepping stone towards their ultimate goal. McLaughlin never wavered in his confidence. In the days leading up to the race, he believed that Charitable Man was going to bounce back in a big way. True to his word, he got just what he was looking for, a decisive victory over six other rivals, which would set him up beautifully for the Belmont four weeks later. Personally, I felt that he sat a perfect trip, inheriting the lead from a very tired pacesetter in mid stretch. The second place finisher Imperial Council, came back to run a dismal eighth in the Shadwell Met Mile on Memorial Day.
What should we expect from Charitable Man in the Belmont Stakes? There are too many positives to dismiss his chances to run a winning race. He will have to take another big step forward off his win in the Peter Pan, but the verdict is still out on how good he really is. Clearly Charitable Man is a “live” wild card for reasons mentioned earlier. With the exception of Miner’s Escape, who I would consider “cheap speed”, he will have the perfect target to run at. If he can open a nice lead turning for home, he will have a tactical advantage over the closers. If he can stay the grueling 1 ½ mile distance, his chances for a mild upset becomes that much better. His pedigree says he should be able to. His sire Lemon Drop Kid, won the 1999 Belmont Stakes. Kiaran McLaughlin also has a Belmont victory to his credit, training Jazil to win the 2006 Belmont, despite having just a maiden win to his credit. I will be using Charitable Man on all my tickets.
7 MINE THAT BIRD 2/1 If you told me before the Kentucky Derby that Mine That Bird would upset the field, run second in the Preakness, and go off the favorite in the Belmont Stakes, I would think you were out of your mind and then some. Mine That Bird had shown nothing in his three year old form to consider him a viable contender in the Derby. It was just a matter of how far back he would be at the finish. When he crossed the wire in front, leaving the rest of the field in his wake, I looked up at the tote board thinking he was 99-1. When I noticed he was just 50-1, I was stunned, thinking that maybe someone knew something that I didn’t. When it turned out that the owner and trainer did not bet a dime, and that the connections who owned Mine That Bird prior to selling him, bet $10.00 across the board, his low price could only be a result of Calvin Borel being aboard. Borel is a fan favorite at Churchill Downs. He had won the Kentucky Oaks the day before aboard Rachel Alexandra, as well as several races on the undercard on Friday and Saturday. I, like many others, thought his easy win in the Derby was a result of Mine That Bird relishing the sloppy track, closing up the inside, which was the best part of the track that day, and running by very tired horses that disliked the going. For all those reasons, I picked against him in the Preakness, even though I did use him underneath Rachel Alexandra in the trifecta on my stakes sheet. I must admit, that Mine That Bird fooled me again. It was a no brainer that Borel was going to ride Rachel over the Bird if she was entered in the Preakness. When owner Jess Jackson gave the green light to run, Mike Smith was chosen as the new rider. Everyone knew that similar closing tactics would be employed. No one can argue that Rachel was a deserving winner. Actually, I felt she ran a better race than Mine That Bird, as she did all the dirty work to help his late kick. Rachel had to be hard used when the gate opened, in order to secure a good position from her outside post. She chased a quick pace, and then had to make a strong middle move to take command midway on the far turn. From that point on to the finish, Rachel had to run very hard. Not unexpectedly, she was a very tired horse in deep stretch, but was able to hold on because of her ability and a big heart. It was likely that Rachel would have been run down by the Bird if the race was a bit longer and if Mike Smith was not forced to steady behind a wall of horses approaching the stretch while in full flight. Smith had to swing out very wide into the stretch and the Bird took off again to go after the filly and simply ran out of ground. He made a believer out of me. Even in defeat, the Bird impressed me as much as he did in the Derby. In the Preakness, he was able to duplicate his form over a dry surface, rallying outside of horses and overcoming adversity, which was a totally different set of circumstances from what he was faced with in Kentucky. What the Preakness also proved to me, was that Mine That Bird was on the improve and the rest of his male counterparts were not only average at best (with the exception of Musket Man, who runs his A race every time he sets foot on the track), but were “over the top” and in need of a rest.
The million dollar question is how Mine That Bird became the best three year old male in the country in just a matter of a few weeks, when he had proven to be several notches below in ability than what he was going to face in the Kentucky Derby. The only way I can explain it is twofold. He peaked at the right time, and responded to totally different riding tactics than what he was used to running in all his prior starts. Mine That Bird has proven without a doubt, that he wants to be taken far back early in the race and then begin his closing run midway on the far turn. What is amazing about the Bird is that he can sustain his rally for as long as he does. When every horse begins to tire in deep stretch, he continues to fly on.
What can we expect from Mine That Bird in the Belmont Stakes? With the exception of Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy and the new shooter Charitable Man, any of the other horses would be a surprise if they were to win. Mine That Bird has earned the right to be the choice of the public. Because the race is 1 ½ miles, there is a big question mark whether his rivals can handle the distance. I don’t feel that this will be the case at all with the Bird. Nevertheless, as the favorite, I prefer to go with Dunkirk, who I feel was eliminated early on in the Derby. If he runs the race I expect he will, then Mine That Bird will have to snatch him from behind. It’s very possible, but my money says he won’t. My opinion may turn out to be wrong, but always remember, you can still make money if you wager correctly. That is why I provide you my wagering strategies. I am not so foolish that I will not put the Bird on top on some of my suggested tickets.
1 CHOCOLATE CANDY 10/1 If you feel that Pioneerof the Nile was a major contender to win the Kentucky Derby, than you would have had to consider Chocolate Candy as well. These horses have faced each other twice. Pioneer won both times. They met as 2 year olds in the Cash Call Futurity, a race in which Pioneer defeated Candy by 1 ½ lengths. They met again in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Candy rallied from off the pace to fall a length short. Despite the defeat, I felt he ran just as well as his rival .The complexion of the race changed dramatically when speedballs Z Day and The Pamplemousse were both late scratches. They would have ensured fast fractions which would have benefitted a horse like Chocolate Candy, who likes to lay back, and make one late run. Confronted with a new pace scenario in which the early fractions would be much slower, Candy was faced with a much tougher task in trying to run down the heavy favorite Pioneerof the Nile. As the field approached the stretch, Candy was last of seven. He sustained a strong wide rally, but simply ran out of ground and had to settle for second. His trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who is the perennial “king” of racing in northern California, indicated in the days leading up to the race that Chocolate Candy would not be at his best. He just wanted to get a strong race into Candy to set him up for a peak performance the first Saturday in May. Hollendorfer got just what he wanted. The question being: could Chocolate Candy be considered a major player? My main concern was that Chocolate Candy had never raced outside of California, and all nine starts had been on synthetic surfaces. Despite running on conventional dirt for the first time at Churchill, as well as over a sloppy track, he ran very well. Chocolate was squeezed back soon after the start, finding himself quickly in seventeenth place. He rallied through traffic for a fifth place finish.
What should we expect from Chocolate Candy in the Belmont Stakes? Hollendorfer wisely passed the Preakness. He shipped Chocolate to Belmont a few days after the race to prepare for the "Test of Champions'. He has acclimated himself very well since arriving. Candy has worked three times over the track. I love the spacing of his morning drills. He has worked 4 furlongs, 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs. His final workout was an easy 5 furlongs last Monday. It was by design that the emphasis was clearly on building up his stamina. His pedigree points out that Chocolate Candy should be well suited to the 1 ½ mile distance. His sire Candy Ride won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 1 ¼ miles. His dam traces back to Triple Crown winner Affirmed. His trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, whom I have always had great respect for, has trained several Grade 1 winners such as King Glorious, winner of the 1988 Hollywood Futurity and the 1989 Haskell. Heatseeker won the 2008 Santa Anita Handicap. Hysterical Lady ran a close second in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Hollendorfer has also won two Kentucky Oaks with Lite Lite and Pike Place Dancer. Obviously, he has shown an uncanny knack at winning prestigious races with northern California based horses. Chocolate Candy likes to be taken in hand early in the race and settle into his nice fluid stride before making his run. In the Belmont, he will be ridden for the first time by Garrett Gomez, who in my opinion, is the finest rider in the country. He is very good on front runners, but Gomez is at his best riding horses that rally from off the pace. I would not be shocked if Chocolate Candy wins the Belmont, but an “in the money” finish is more likely. He will be used in my exactas and trifectas.
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12th BEL 6f (Turf) MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $51,000. ( 7:10)/ 6:10/ 5:10/ 4:10
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 STORM HOPE 5/2 Has shown a lot more ability on grass than anyone else in this field, rallying to hit the board in both turf tries last year at age 2 while beaten a total of less than 3 lengths in those two races. He's probably grown and matured quite a bit since then and now returns with some sharp works for good layoff trainer Barclay Tagg. Tagg is having a great meet so far, with 10 winners from 42 starters, and lures top jockey Dominguez to ride, a sign that Storm Hope is well-meant first time off the layoff. His May 22 gate work also hints at more early speed than he showed last year.
6 GLOBEMASTER 10/1 Debuts for hot trainer Angel Penna Jr., who's won with 5 of his first 12 starters at this meet, mostly turf horses. Colt is bred top and bottom for grass but Penna's runners usually need a race or two before showing their best stuff.
3 WESTERN CONNECTION 4/1 Pressed the pace most of the way in his lone career start, with was a turf route over this course 7+ months ago. Gets a big positive rider change for this second career start to Alan Garcia, who's won 3 of 7 for trainer John Morrison in 2008-09, and he should have this gelding forwardly placed in a field without much proven early speed.
2 MONASTIR 8/1 Has hit the board in his last two starts, both 'off the turf' events that show that his connections have been eager to try him on grass for a while now. He showed improved early speed last time out and could sit fairly close to an expected mild pace. Turf breeding is okay.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (13)AFRIKANER (14)AFRICAN KNIGHT (16)GRACEFUL AFLEET (5)BRAVE SOUL
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13th BEL 6f (IT) Clm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $32,000. ( 7:45)/ 6:45/ 5:45/ 4:45
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10) Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
4 MANCHILD 2/1 Makes it two in a row for a hot barn. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
2 DRIVEN BY ROYAL 8/1 Speedy gelding will lead them as far as he can. He just failed to last May 8 in an off-the-turf race, losing by just a head at this class level, although he really had no excuse in that small field. Perhaps he'll fare a bit better on grass, as 2 of his 3 siblings to race on turf won.
7 CITY SNEAKERS 6/1 Came off a 6-month layoff and posted a game maiden victory for Linda Rice, who is the undisputed leader in turf sprints on this circuit. City Sneakers ran okay in two prior turf sprints but may be a better runner now at age 2, and certainly can improve second off the layoff. His versatility is also a plus.
8 MARRA MARRA 12/1 Ran better than appears when moving to turf April 25. He chased a blazing early pace in that turf route and was right there at the quarter pole before throwing in the towel. This cutback to a sprint is what he needs and he's won 1 of 2 prior sprints, although they were on dirt.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (4)MANCHILD (14)WANDAS DOUBLE (16)LINCOLN ROAD (2)DRIVEN BY ROYAL
Wizard's Crystal Ball:
#2 CONVOCATION (Race 3) Began his career earlier this year during the heart of the Gulfstream Park meeting, on a day when there was an intense speed bias. Son of top sire Pulpit broke slowly and sat in the back half of the field early on. Proceeded to make a steady run while wide and finished well for second against the grain of the track. Off that effort he was made the odds-on favorite in his second career start, stretching out to two turns. Breaking from a tough outside post, he proceeded to lose his best chance by ducking out sharply at the break and spotting the field about five lengths. He then entered the short run into the first turn well behind the field and very wide under new rider Javier Castellano. He continued to suffer a wide trip throughout and then proceeded to bear out turning for home, an indication of a soundness problem. Wrapped up late, he was only beaten 3-1/2 lengths for second despite a terrible trip coupled with an awful performance. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens learned his craft from one of the greatest horseman of all time, his father Allen, and as a result he doesn't make many mistakes. Jerkens gave this $340,000 purchase a freshening to fix whatever was ailing him and brought him back off a steady work pattern on May 2. If not for a brutal trip in which he was boxed in while stuck down on the inside for most of the running, he likely would have won over a very good field. Today he gets a favorable rider switch to Kent Desormeaux, and he should be set for a sharp performance with a race over the track while making his second start off the break. His best effort should win this race.
#6 FABULOUS STRIKE (Race 6) Cuts back to his best distance off a very game effort in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap, a 7-furlong race that is really a furlong beyond what he prefers. In that race he set a mercurial pace, put away his rival, and wasn't caught until deep stretch by an opportunistic closer. At 6 furlongs this son of top sire Smart Strike has won 9 of 14 races lifetime, and he has had very legitimate excuses in some of his rare losses such as the Breeders' Sprint last year, which was contested over synthetic track. This gelding has been training like a monster in the morning for trainer Todd Beattie, who wins at nearly a 30% clip with horses off 46-90 day layoffs. Three for five over Big Sandy, Fabulous Strike figures to sit a favorable trip pressing the pace from the outside under regular rider Ramon Dominguez. I look for him to take the lead turning for home and prove difficult to catch in the lane.
#8 JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE (Race 9) Was expected to present a challenge to the superfilly Rachel Alexandra in the G1 Kentucky Oaks, but was scratched the morning of that race when the track came up too wet. Streaking filly has won five straight races, including two Grade 2 events, all by relatively large margins, and she shows no signs of losing her sharp form. Since the scratch from the Ky Oaks she's shipped back to New York and has been working great over this track, where she broke her maiden last Oct 13. She's versatile enough to press or stalk the pace and could be sitting on a top performance while forced to sit 'on hold' for more than 2 months since her last race.
#4 MANCHILD (Race 13) NOTE: This play is for turf OR dirt. Although I much prefer this gelding if this race stays on the turf, I also like his chances if moved to dirt. He's raced for a claiming tag just twice so far in his career, and the results are a win and a close 2nd place finish. He raced in a turf sprint for the first time May 15 while also dropping in with claimers for just the second time, and the result was a comfortable win over this course and distance in solid time for the class level. He also had his blinkers removed for that race, but they didn't dull his early speed, as he pressed the pace from the start before taking over mid-stretch. Today he's very realistically spotted in hi first try against winners by hot trainer Carlos Martin, who's winning better than 30% so far at this meet. Winning jockey John Velazquez remains aboard and should have Manchild in a similar pace-pressing position today as they break outside of probable pacesetter Driven By Royal.
1st BEL 6f Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $53,000. (11:35)/10:35/ 9:35/ 8:35
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Race (1-3), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 DIXIELAND STAR 2/1 Returns from an 11-month layoff for hot trainer John Kimmel, who's winning nearly 30% at this meet. 4yo son of top NY sprint sire Hook and Ladder has run some strong races, better than the rest of this modest field has been able to produce, and his good 2nd place finish in his debut shows that he can fire fresh. He's hit the exacta in 3 of 4 starts over this track and regular rider Eibar Coa is back aboard.
3 INGER MANAGEMENT 5/2 Has speed to lead or press the pace and isn't really stepping up in class much off a atarter allowance win at Philly Park on May 4. The horse that finished 2nd behind him returned to finish 2nd in a $100,000 race at Penn National. Inger Management has finished 2nd in both prior starts at this NY bred allowance level, and if Dixieland Star isn't fit and ready enough off the layoff then this gelding should prevail.
9 BLOW UP 6/1 Added Lasix May 16 for his first start over this track and won by 5 widening lengths at 8-1. He need not improve all that much to contend in this spot and should factor for at least a minor award with his improving form.
2 NIGHT IN TUNISA 12/1 Won easily the only prior time that he made this turf-to-dirt move, and the win was over this track and distance. Should improve second start off the short layoff, with three more good works since the May 1 race.
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2nd BEL 7fAlwOClm $75,000 3yo and up, Purse: $55,000. (12:05)/11:05/10:05/ 9:05
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (2-4), Pick 4 Races (2-5),daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
6 MUCH THE BEST 8/5 $400,000 2yo purchase looks like he can clear to the lead fairly easily and never look back. Blinkers went on April 18 and he took off on the lead, setting too fast a pace but holding clear well into the final furlong at this same 7F trip. The blinkers came off May 16 and he was able to sit more patiently in 2nd. Today hot trainer Mike Hushion wants to sharpen that speed again so the hood is back on, and they have the good fortune of catching a field without another real front-runner.
3 SPEIGHT OF HAND 7/2 Returned from a 5-month layoff with a dominant win at this tough 7F distance on april 10, then ran a big race again May 10 when stretching out to 1-1/16 miles. Could be set for a top effort in his third start off the layoff and should have plenty of stamina on this cutback in distance. Trainer Chad Brown is 5 for 15 at this meet and excels with this route-to-sprint move, winning 22% in 2008-09.
7 JUST BEN 3/1 Chased Much The Best May 16 and finished right behind him in a good effort. Trouble-prone colt has yet to have a really good trip, mostly his own doing, yet has still shown plenty of ability and potential. Should be forwardly placed under John Velazquez.
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3rd BEL 1m MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $54,000. (12:37)/11:37/10:37/ 9:37
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 CONVOCATION 3/1 Gets the job done with a clean trip. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
10 ALLRIGHTSRESERVED 7/2 Looks like the main threat to Convocation as he makes back to back starts without a layoff for the first time in his career, a sign that he may be sounder and fitter than ever. He's finished a close 2nd in his last two starts, both at today's distance, and has shown versatility to lead or sit just off the pace.
11 WANTED ALIVE 5/1 Raced just once at age 2, finishing 4th in a very strong, 'key' race behind subsequent graded stakes winner Musket Man. Showed improvement when returning from a 6-month layoff May 9 and finished a close 2nd. Dominguez stays aboard.
12 FRENCHONIONSOUP 10/1 Found his best stride too late in his 4th place debut after a somewhat slow start. Adds Lasix now, a 25% winning angle for Bruce Levine, who's also won with 24% of his second time starters in 2008-09. Excellent wet track breeding.
6 WOODFORD MANHATTAN 15/1 Led all but the final yards when losing by a head in a fast race April 17. The winner of that event returned to win his next start as well. Didn't handle the turf 'experiment' May 16, but Nick Zito is not known for winning on grass. Should be set to rebound while moving to dirt.
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4th BEL 1 1/16m (IT)AlwOClm $50,000 3yo and up, Purse: $58,000. ( 1:10)/12:10/11:10/10:10
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6), Daily Double Wa
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 EXPANSION 3/1 Enters in career-best form after finishing 2nd twice in a row at this class level. His late-running style was compromised by a slow pace in those two races on April 4 and May 14 but he still finished powerfully for the place. He's hit the exacta in 7 of 9 lifetime starts on turf and lost by just a head in his only prior try over non-firm ground. Gets a much better post than he had last time out.
4 UNCLE INDY 5/1 Regally-bred horse is by one of the best sires of all time and out of the dam Auntie Mame, who was a G1 turf winner for this same trainer. Angel Penna Jr. has been on a tear at this meet, winning with 5 of 12 starters, and is at his best with turf horses. Uncle Indy has won two in a row and comes off his best career race, a clear win in very fast time where he flew thru his final furlong in :11-2/5. Cornelio Velasquez has been aboard for both victories and has won at a 30% rate when riding for Penna in 2008-09.
1 SPURRED 9/2 Makes his second start off a 10-month layoff and has been given time to recover from a game win at this distance in that race. He showed more tactical speed than he had in the past and loved the non-firm ground. He's always done well over non-firm turf and should love the footing today. Consistent 5yo has hit the board in 10 of 12 starts on grass, including 4 wins, and can save ground from post 1.
10 RADICAL SABBATICAL 8/1 Should be close to an expected mild pace despite his tough outside post. He has a win and a 2nd in two prior starts on Belmont turf and also likes non-firm ground.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (11)EVEN RAISE (12)JACK ON THE ROCKS (13)MR UNSTOPPABLE (5)IZANAGI
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5th BEL 1 1/16m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $56,000. ( 1:50)/12:50/11:50/10:50
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
3 GET STORMY 6/1 Should have won both of his last two starts but had trouble each time. He loomed home free March 31 but ducked in sharply and lost his rider when leading by 5 lengths in the final furlong. He returned May 20 and only lost by 1/2 length despite being blocked for much of the stretch, finishing 2nd to a 4-5 winner. With any kind of reasonable racing room he could have won. Shows a great bullet work over Belmont turf on May 31 and should retain his sharp form. Now all he needs is a little luck.
5 LE GRAND CRU 10/1 Finished close behind Get Stormy on May 20 while making his first start on turf and first start in a route race. It was a very good performance and now he adds blinkers. He's bred top and bottom to run all day and could land on the lead with the addition of the hood.
13 HANGINGBYATHREAD 6/1 Might have been the top choice if not for the bad post that he'll have if he gets in from the AE list. He got very good at the end of last year, with a 5-length win over soft ground and then a tough loss by a neck and a nose at 25-1 in a stakes race. He returned from the 6-month layoff with a dominant win in fast time under a hand ride and should only improve second start back for a hot trainer.
10 SETTE E MEZZO 4/1 Won off a short layoff April 3 and then finished 3rd May 14 despite a bad trip. He was close to the pace that day but then fell back to 6th on the far turn when forced to check. He then re-rallied and made up about 4 lengths in the final furlong. Benefits from this slightly longer trip.
4 SO IT GOES 6/1 Versatile gelding rated in last place to the far turn and then finished fast to get up for 2nd at 18-1 May 14 when returning from an 8-month layoff. He's shown more tactical speed in the past and could be forwardly placed today while breaking from a much better post. He won his only prior start at this distance, which was also his only prior start on non-firm ground, and did so at 26-1.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (5)LE GRAND CRU (11)PRECURSOR (1A)HAITIAN SENSATION (15)OVEREXTENDED (14)JOE CORRIGAN
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6th BEL 6f Grade II 3yo and up, Purse: $250,000. ( 2:33)/ 1:33/12:33/11:33
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (6-8), Pick 6 Races (6-11), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
6 FABULOUS STRIKE 2/1 Returns to his winning ways while cutting back to his best distance. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
3 TWO STEP SALSA 3/1 Is undefeated and untested in two races since being privately purchased by mighty Godolphin Stable. His victory in the G2, $1 million Godolphin Mile on March 28 was impressive and he's been freshened since, with some fast recent works over this track. He's 3 for 3 lifetime in races at today's 6F distance and has the ability to win if Smart Strike is not at his best. 4yo colt likes the lead but has shown in his last two wins that he can also press or stalk the pace.
1 BENNY THE BULL 5/2 Last year's sprint champion was retired with a minor injury, then un-retired when that malady cleared up fairly quickly. Nonetheless, he hasn't raced in nearly 11 months, and is using this race as a 'prep' for a return engagement in the Smile Sprint Handicap, a G2 race that he won impressively last year and that capped off his 4 for 4 campaign. He has a powerful late kick and should get an honest pace to rally into, but isn't expected to be fully 'cranked up' for this race.
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7th BEL 1m (Turf) Grade I 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $400,000. ( 3:15)/ 2:15/ 1:15/12:15
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Grand Slam Races (7-10),daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 MY PRINCESS JESS 5/1 I like this filly's chances at an upset as she makes her second start off a 6-month layoff and is expected to get the kind of non-firm ground that she loves. She was a G2 winner over soft turf last year at Saratoga, and now at age 4 she seems to have matured and improved further. Her May 2 victory off the layoff was extremely impressive because she had to rally from behind a very slow pace after also waiting in traffic for racing room. Her final 5/16 of a mile in :29 flat over the 'good' turf was outstanding and improvement is likely today second start back. She's shown good tactical speed in the past and will probably get the jump on expected heavy favorite Forever Together.
5 FOREVER TOGETHER 6/5 Last year's female turf champion finkshed a close 3rd in this race at 44-1 in 2008 and has since won 4 of 5 starts, including three Grace 1 events. She returned from a layoff for her 2009 debut April 11 and picked up where she left off, roaring home for a relatively easy win in the G2 Jenny Wiley. She's been pointed here since and is the proven class of the field, but the possible slow pace will work against her, and she's probably better at distances longer than a mile.
1 CARRIBEAN SUNSET 6/1 Finished 2nd to My Princess Jess May 2 with a strong finish in a race she probably needed off the 7-month layoff. She's a 3-time Group Stakes winner and is also Group 1 stakes-placed, and should improve second off the layoff for top turf trainer Clement. He's won at a 36% rate second off of similar layoffs in 2008-09 and this filly is proven to love softer ground.
2 RAW SILK 10/1 Without much early speed in this race this filly could be allowed to set a mild pace at this distance where she's 2 for 2 lifetime. She won in very fast time April 11 off the 5-month layoff and should be even fitter second time back. She's okay on non-firm ground, but is probably better over firm footing.
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8th BEL 7f Grade II 3yo, Purse: $250,000. ( 3:59)/ 2:59/ 1:59/12:59
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (8-10), Pick 4 Races (8-11), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 THIS ONES FOR PHIL 7/2 Has run three huge races in four attempts since moving to the barn of Richard Dutrow Jr. Stalker won in blazing time Jan 24 an also won the G2 Swale at today's 7F distance when moved up via disqualification after being interfered with during a fierce stretch battle. Most recently he was badly blocked as the winner rolled by in the G3 Withers, then put in a resolute rally too late. With clear sailing he could have won. Reunites with Garrett Gomez, who was aboard for the Swale win, and should sit a good stalking trip a few lengths back.
8 HULL 3/1 Undefeated colt has won all 3 starts by widening margins but will face his toughest test by far today. Projects to press the pace from his outside post under regular jockey Mena and should be prominant all of the way while shortening up a bit in distance.
4 MUNNINGS 4/1 $1.7 million 2yo purchase showed much potential at age 2 when he won his debut in very fast time and then placed in two Grade 1 events, including the Champagne over this track. He came off a 6-month layoff with a big effort in a very fast race May 1 and should move forward today for top trainer Pletcher. Stalker projects to get a fast pace to rally into and he likes this 7F distance.
6 HELLO BROADWAY 12/1 Price play finished 2nd in the G2 Hutcheson in his only prior start at 7F. Most recently he ran better than appears in the 9-furlong Peter Pan over this track when he added blinkers and tore off to set a suicidal pace. The blinkers come off today and he should have plenty of stamina while probably reverting to stalking tactics.
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9th BEL 1m Grade I 3yo Fillies, Purse: $300,000. ( 4:44)/ 3:44/ 2:44/ 1:44
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10) Pick 3 Races (9-11), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE 8/5 Finds a good spot to notch her first G1 victory. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
7 DREAM PLAY 6/1 Has been improving all year for Kiaran McLaughlin while playing 'second fiddle' to stablemate Justwhistledixie. Loved the initial stretch to a route on April 11 when she led all the way to win in fast time in the 1-mile Comely, also around one turn. She's been pointed here since, and if for some reason Justwhistledixie doesn't bring her best stuff, then this filly looks like the most likely upsetter.
9 FOUR GIFTS 6/1 Stalker won her second graded stakes race May 2 when she returned from a freshening to win the Eight Belles at a similar distance at Churchill Downs. She rarely misfires and should get an honest pace to stalk and rally into.
5 DOREMIFASOLLATIDO 6/1 Has 2 wins and 2 2nds over this track, including a strong victory in the G2 Matron last Sept 13. Versatile filly got a useful 'prep' May 15 off the 7-month layoff and was not abused when well clear of 3rd behind an odds-on winner who ran a hole in the wind. Should improve second time back for high-percentage trainer Jimmy Jerkens but must show that she can be effective in a race beyond 7F.
2 GABBY'S GOLDEN GAL 15/1 Set a very fast pace in her route debut March 29 but had plenty left in the tank to run away from her field in the stretch and win by 13 lengths in fast time. Faced a much tougher group in the Ky Oaks May 1 and wilted in the final furlong after leading most of the way. Should benefit from this cutback to a mile and could get very brave up front at big odds.
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10th BEL 1 1/4m (IT) Grade I 3yo and up, Purse: $400,000. ( 5:34)/ 4:34/ 3:34/ 2:34
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (10-12), Pick 4 Races (10-13),daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
5 GIO PONTI 7/2 Has been a classy and versatile turf horse from the start for top turf trainer Christophe Clement. He was a turf stakes winner at age 2 and a multiple graded turf stakes winner at age 3, including the G2 Virginia Derby at today's distance. However, now at age 4 he seems to have reached a new level. His powerful victory from far off the pace in the G1 Kilroe Mile last time out was his best race yet as he showed that his tremendous late turn of foot is as effective at a mile as it is at a mile and a quarter. With three months between starts he enters this race fresh and fit, with a history of running very well when fresh, including a victory in the G3 Hill Prince on Belmont turf a year ago to the day. Ramon Dominguez rode him last time out, but no one knows Gio Ponti better than Garrett Gomez, and he regains the mount today.
1 COURT VISION 4/1 Was a G1 winner at this distance in the Hollywood Derby and should appreciate the stretch out from the 9-furlong G1 Turf Classic on May 2. In that race he finished fast go get up for 3rd after trailing a mild pace. He's been pointed to this race by Hall Of Famer Bill Mott since then and hw won his only prior race on Belmont turf, winning the G2 Jamaica over non-firm ground.
12 COWBOY CAL 3/1 Put forth his typical gutsy effort in the G1 Turf Classic May 2 to miss by just a head to multiple G1 winner Einstein while finishing nearly 3 lengths clear of Court Vision in 3rd. This multiple G2 winner almost always runs his heart out and has hit the exacta in 10 of 13 lifetime starts over many different racing surfaces, almost all of them against graded stakes company. The outside post is tough but he has good early speed and should be able to secure a good pressing or stalking position before the first turn.
9 COSMONAUT 6/1 Can lead or sit just off the pace and should move forward in his second start off the 10-month layoff. His May 2 victory was excellent and in fast time over the 'good' turf, and he may be even better over softer footing. This distance is probably longer than his best but if the pace is slow then he can last for a minor award, as he did in his last start before the layoff.
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11th BEL 1 1/2m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $1,000,000. ( 6:27)/ 5:27/ 4:27/ 3:27
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Races (11-13),double Wagers Leg B - Brooklyn/belmont Double
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 DUNKIRK 4/1 Dunkirk did not exactly make an immediate splash in the water. He never had a chance to. This well-bred son of Unbridled's Song never made it to the races as a two-year-old. Minor shin problems placed his racing career on hold. One has to believe that at some juncture, as a juvenile, this Todd Pletcher trained runner showed some type of promise. So, Dunkirk was given all the time necessary to put that problem behind.
When Dunkirk finally made his belated debut at Gulfstream Park on January 24, he did so with a steady, prolonged, and evenly-spaced, workout regimen at the Palm Meadows training center. To say he was well-prepared would be understated. Despite working out away from prying eyes at Gulfstream Park, Dunkirk was bet down to an 8-5 favoritism. There are some secrets that are not meant to be kept. Overcoming a lethargic start that day, with jockey Edgar Prado aboard, Dunkirk was forced to subsequently steady around the far turn. Undeterred, when he was finally in the clear, he accelerated nicely in the stretch to gain the lead, eventually winning by 5 3/4 lengths under modest encouragement. Dunkirk had lived up to his advanced notices, and even better things lay ahead for him. Dunkirk returned to the races rather quickly, tackling a field of preliminary Allowance runners around two turns on February 19. In addition, he would stretch out to 1 1/8 miles, and would be saddled with an outside post as well. Dispatched as the 6-5 favorite, Dunkirk was impressive once again in victory. A wide trip while losing valuable ground throughout, did nothing to discourage him, as he improved his position heading into the far turn under new jockey Garrett Gomez. Upon entering the stretch, he was kicked into overdrive, spurting away to a daylight lead and then continued to the wire. Dunkirk had accomplished much in a relatively short amount of time. And yet, even more would be asked of him the following month, as he would make his stakes debut in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
In my opinion, the Florida Derby was a two-horse affair between Quality Road and Dunkirk. A sense of urgency was present for Dunkirk to win the Florida Derby as he had not won a penny of graded stakes money. A win would ensure him a spot in the Kentucky Derby. A second-place finish, or worse in the race, would place him on the bubble. Dunkirk not only had to beat six rivals in the Florida Derby, but he had a significant speed bias to overcome as well. His off-the-pace running style would not be flattered by the prevailing bias, and he would be disadvantaged by a lack of pace in the race as well. Also, he had never faced a horse that was even close to the caliber of Quality Road. But, Dunkirk didn't know all that. When Gomez 'chirped' to him halfway down the Gulfstream Park backstretch, almost instantaneously, Dunkirk was in full stride. He made up ground so rapidly that jockey John Velasquez, who was aboard Quality Road was caught off guard as Dunkirk gained a brief, but tenuous lead. However, Quality Road was nowhere near done. The eventual winner responded readily when asked to quicken, slowly edging away from Dunkirk in the final furlong to register a 1 3/4 length victory. Dunkirk acquitted himself quite well in defeat. In fact, it was his best effort to date, despite finishing second, he gave away a huge tactical edge to the winner over a speed-biased track. His sustained bid from the backstretch to the furlong marker virtually sapped all the energy out of him, and he could not complete what he started, despite giving it his all. Of course he was tired 'pulling up' after the race. He had just run the race of his life in just his third career effort, and he was playing 'catch-up' due to an unscheduled late start.
Following the Florida Derby, Quality Road was going to be my selection to win the Kentucky Derby. I felt he had the most upside of all his three year old rivals. He possessed excellent tactical speed, a pedigree to handle the 1 ¼ mile distance, and a top trainer in Jimmy Jerkens calling the shots. Unfortunately, for Quality Road, and his connections, he developed a quarter crack in his right front foot shortly after the Florida Derby, which made his status for the Derby uncertain. A second quarter crack was spotted less than two weeks before the big dance. On the Monday before the "Run for the Roses", Jerkins declared him out of the race. With the likely favorite on the sidelines, the big money would be spread out between Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, and Pioneerof the Nile. I knew where my money was going, and that was on Dunkirk. My reasoning was simple. If I felt that Quality Road was the best three year old, and Dunkirk ran a strong second to him, despite his lack of seasoning, any improvement would be more than enough to handle what I felt were a bunch of mediocre three year olds!
Dunkirk arrived at Churchill Downs the Tuesday before the Derby. I had heard from a reliable source that he acted up badly when schooling in the paddock the following day. I was concerned about this behavior, and hoped that he would become more relaxed as he got more acclimated with his new surroundings. I did get my chance on Saturday, as I watched intently when Dunkirk was led in to his stall to be saddled. He showed no signs of being unsettled and at no point did he fight his handlers. Once the tack was put on, and he was led into the walking ring to circle around his admirers, Dunkirk took in all sights very calm and collected. I felt that he was now ready to do battle with his eighteen rivals.
As a result of intermittent showers on Friday, which became heavier throughout the evening, the main track was listed sloppy on Saturday. The forecast called for more rain throughout the day, but it never materialized. Without any sun, and cool weather throughout the afternoon, the track never dried out. When the Derby rolled around, it was evident that the field would be running over a very tricky surface. The track was saturated with water and very heavy to the hooves running over it. It is track conditions like this, which plays havoc to form. Horses either relish the goo or hate it. In the case of the 50-1 upset winner Mine That Bird, who took to the track like a fish takes to water, the rest of the field, who were left in his wake, were just spinning their wheels over it. On first glance, you might think that Dunkirk fit this profile, but on closer inspection, it was not the slop that did him in, it was his journey, and it was horrific from the start. As soon as the gate opened, Dunkirk stumbled badly and almost went down. Jockey Edgar Prado had to hold on for dear life not to fall off, but his uncanny riding skills, allowed him to stay aboard, and get Dunkirk back on stride. As he approached the first turn, Prado had to put on the brakes as he was forced to take up when squeezed between horses. Dunkirk found himself towards the back of the pack. He was able to launch a mild rally, approaching the far turn, but it was short lived. The best he could do was run eleventh, in a "better than it looked" performance.
Dunkirk's connections showed no interest in running him in the Preakness two weeks later. Instead he would ship back to his home base at Belmont Park to prepare for the Belmont Stakes. It took only sixteen days to recover from this hard effort. Dunkirk worked 4 furlongs on May 18. His time of: 47 1/5 breezing, was the quickest of sixty horses who worked the same distance that morning. He was back on his game and ready to redeem himself.
What should we expect from Dunkirk in the Belmont Stakes? He was my selection to win the Kentucky Derby and he will once again be my choice to earn top honors in the third leg of the Triple Crown. The Belmont Stakes is considered The Test of Champions. The 1 ½ mile distance is uncharted waters for all three years. Many talented horses that have looked like sure winners with an eighth of a mile to the finish line, simply run out of steam. The Belmont Stakes has proven not to be kind to deep closers, like Mine That Bird, who figure to be overbet off his Derby win and a fast closing second in the Preakness. Many people will believe that if he can make up so much ground at a shorter distance, then he should benefit the longer he goes. Horses that have tactical speed, win most Belmont's, especially if they can relax early on in the race, and receive a well timed ride, as they make their move to the lead. Those who are racing towards the back of the pack expend too much energy to catch up. Because of the distance, Dunkirk will race in mid pack, and make his move on the far turn. He has a long stride that will benefit from the wide sweeping turns at Belmont, in contrast to the tighter turns, like he would have had to negotiate at Pimlico in the Preakness. Trainer Todd Pletcher is making a jockey change to John Velazquez, who is Pletchers' main go to rider. Velazquez has not been aboard Dunkirk before. He had ridden Quality Road to victory in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, in preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher hooked up with Velazquez to win the 2007 Belmont Stakes aboard the filly Rags to Riches, who then upset two time horse of the year Curlin.
6 CHARITABLE MAN 3/1 If you are looking for a stranger to back in the Belmont Stakes, Charitable Man fits the bill. In a year where the three year old crop is at best just an average one, a fresh horse, which has not been put through the rigors of the Triple Crown trail, must be respected. When you also throw into the mix that Charitable Man has excellent tactical speed, is based at Belmont Park, and is trained by one of the finest horseman in the country, it just adds to his allure. Charitable Man could not have been more impressive when he won his debut last August at Saratoga. Right from the start, he zipped to the lead, put away pace pressure on the far turn, and drew off to a convincing win in very fast time. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin thought so much of Charitable Man's victory, that in his first start at Belmont Park he quickly moved him into stakes company in the Grade 2 Futurity. Bet down to the 7-5 favorite, he did not disappoint. Despite scoring by only one length, his win was much more impressive than it looked on paper. In his debut, Charitable Man went wire to wire. In the futurity, he was taken back towards the rear of the pack in a seven horse field. On the far turn, jockey Alan Garcia let him loose with a wide sweeping move, and within an instant, Charitable Man inhaled his competition. He needed only a strong hand,urging to post his second impressive victory. Two weeks after the Futurity, McLaughlin discovered the colt had a saucer fracture in his shin. This untimely injury required surgery and a screw had to be inserted in his leg. It was removed in early December. His rehabilitation took place in the pool (called an Aqua-ciser). Soon,Charitable Man was on his way to a complete recovery. He returned to training at the end of January. It wasn't long after, that his connections began to get Derby fever.
Charitable Man did most of his training at Palm Meadows in Florida. Each workout was stronger than the previous one. He had accumulated a $150,000 in graded earnings, based on his win in the Futurity as a two year old, which put him in the running for a starting berth in the Kentucky Derby. All he needed was to hit the board in the Grade 1 Bluegrass at Keeneland, to secure his spot in the gate. McLaughlin knew that it would be a tough task for Charitable Man to win a Grade 1 race off a seven month layoff and an injury which could have been a career ending one. When he drew post nine, his prospects became dimmer. Time was running out, so there was no other recourse but to run. Charitable Man had never run over a synthetic surface, but a few weeks prior to the Bluegrass, he was shipped to Ocala (OBS), and was able to train over it. He showed a fondness for the surface, which gave his connections confidence that he could handle it at Keeneland. Nevertheless, many horses work well over synthetic surfaces,but, don't respond the same way on race day. Right from the start in the Bluegrass, Charitable Man was hung out very wide, and could make no impact when asked to run on the far turn. He ended up running seventh, beaten nearly eight lengths. At first glance, it did not appear that coming off a race like that, would inspire much confidence, that he was ready to be competitive in the Derby. However, McLaughlin had a far different opinion. Jockey Garcia said right from the start that Charitable Man could not handle the surface. He came out of the race in excellent shape. Owner Bill Warren agreed with McLaughlin that it would be wise to pass the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and instead point for the Belmont Stakes. They would use the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 9 as a "key" stepping stone towards their ultimate goal. McLaughlin never wavered in his confidence. In the days leading up to the race, he believed that Charitable Man was going to bounce back in a big way. True to his word, he got just what he was looking for, a decisive victory over six other rivals, which would set him up beautifully for the Belmont four weeks later. Personally, I felt that he sat a perfect trip, inheriting the lead from a very tired pacesetter in mid stretch. The second place finisher Imperial Council, came back to run a dismal eighth in the Shadwell Met Mile on Memorial Day.
What should we expect from Charitable Man in the Belmont Stakes? There are too many positives to dismiss his chances to run a winning race. He will have to take another big step forward off his win in the Peter Pan, but the verdict is still out on how good he really is. Clearly Charitable Man is a "live" wild card for reasons mentioned earlier. With the exception of Miner's Escape, who I would consider "cheap speed", he will have the perfect target to run at. If he can open a nice lead turning for home, he will have a tactical advantage over the closers. If he can stay the grueling 1 ½ mile distance, his chances for a mild upset becomes that much better. His pedigree says he should be able to. His sire Lemon Drop Kid, won the 1999 Belmont Stakes. Kiaran McLaughlin also has a Belmont victory to his credit, training Jazil to win the 2006 Belmont, despite having just a maiden win to his credit. I will be using Charitable Man on all my tickets.
7 MINE THAT BIRD 2/1 If you told me before the Kentucky Derby that Mine That Bird would upset the field, run second in the Preakness, and go off the favorite in the Belmont Stakes, I would think you were out of your mind and then some. Mine That Bird had shown nothing in his three year old form to consider him a viable contender in the Derby. It was just a matter of how far back he would be at the finish. When he crossed the wire in front, leaving the rest of the field in his wake, I looked up at the tote board thinking he was 99-1. When I noticed he was just 50-1, I was stunned, thinking that maybe someone knew something that I didn't. When it turned out that the owner and trainer did not bet a dime, and that the connections who owned Mine That Bird prior to selling him, bet $10.00 across the board, his low price could only be a result of Calvin Borel being aboard. Borel is a fan favorite at Churchill Downs. He had won the Kentucky Oaks the day before aboard Rachel Alexandra, as well as several races on the undercard on Friday and Saturday. I, like many others, thought his easy win in the Derby was a result of Mine That Bird relishing the sloppy track, closing up the inside, which was the best part of the track that day, and running by very tired horses that disliked the going. For all those reasons, I picked against him in the Preakness, even though I did use him underneath Rachel Alexandra in the trifecta on my stakes sheet. I must admit, that Mine That Bird fooled me again. It was a no brainer that Borel was going to ride Rachel over the Bird if she was entered in the Preakness. When owner Jess Jackson gave the green light to run, Mike Smith was chosen as the new rider. Everyone knew that similar closing tactics would be employed. No one can argue that Rachel was a deserving winner. Actually, I felt she ran a better race than Mine That Bird, as she did all the dirty work to help his late kick. Rachel had to be hard used when the gate opened, in order to secure a good position from her outside post. She chased a quick pace, and then had to make a strong middle move to take command midway on the far turn. From that point on to the finish, Rachel had to run very hard. Not unexpectedly, she was a very tired horse in deep stretch, but was able to hold on because of her ability and a big heart. It was likely that Rachel would have been run down by the Bird if the race was a bit longer and if Mike Smith was not forced to steady behind a wall of horses approaching the stretch while in full flight. Smith had to swing out very wide into the stretch and the Bird took off again to go after the filly and simply ran out of ground. He made a believer out of me. Even in defeat, the Bird impressed me as much as he did in the Derby. In the Preakness, he was able to duplicate his form over a dry surface, rallying outside of horses and overcoming adversity, which was a totally different set of circumstances from what he was faced with in Kentucky. What the Preakness also proved to me, was that Mine That Bird was on the improve and the rest of his male counterparts were not only average at best (with the exception of Musket Man, who runs his A race every time he sets foot on the track), but were "over the top" and in need of a rest.
The million dollar question is how Mine That Bird became the best three year old male in the country in just a matter of a few weeks, when he had proven to be several notches below in ability than what he was going to face in the Kentucky Derby. The only way I can explain it is twofold. He peaked at the right time, and responded to totally different riding tactics than what he was used to running in all his prior starts. Mine That Bird has proven without a doubt, that he wants to be taken far back early in the race and then begin his closing run midway on the far turn. What is amazing about the Bird is that he can sustain his rally for as long as he does. When every horse begins to tire in deep stretch, he continues to fly on.
What can we expect from Mine That Bird in the Belmont Stakes? With the exception of Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy and the new shooter Charitable Man, any of the other horses would be a surprise if they were to win. Mine That Bird has earned the right to be the choice of the public. Because the race is 1 ½ miles, there is a big question mark whether his rivals can handle the distance. I don't feel that this will be the case at all with the Bird. Nevertheless, as the favorite, I prefer to go with Dunkirk, who I feel was eliminated early on in the Derby. If he runs the race I expect he will, then Mine That Bird will have to snatch him from behind. It's very possible, but my money says he won't. My opinion may turn out to be wrong, but always remember, you can still make money if you wager correctly. That is why I provide you my wagering strategies. I am not so foolish that I will not put the Bird on top on some of my suggested tickets.
1 CHOCOLATE CANDY 10/1 If you feel that Pioneerof the Nile was a major contender to win the Kentucky Derby, than you would have had to consider Chocolate Candy as well. These horses have faced each other twice. Pioneer won both times. They met as 2 year olds in the Cash Call Futurity, a race in which Pioneer defeated Candy by 1 ½ lengths. They met again in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Candy rallied from off the pace to fall a length short. Despite the defeat, I felt he ran just as well as his rival .The complexion of the race changed dramatically when speedballs Z Day and The Pamplemousse were both late scratches. They would have ensured fast fractions which would have benefitted a horse like Chocolate Candy, who likes to lay back, and make one late run. Confronted with a new pace scenario in which the early fractions would be much slower, Candy was faced with a much tougher task in trying to run down the heavy favorite Pioneerof the Nile. As the field approached the stretch, Candy was last of seven. He sustained a strong wide rally, but simply ran out of ground and had to settle for second. His trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who is the perennial "king" of racing in northern California, indicated in the days leading up to the race that Chocolate Candy would not be at his best. He just wanted to get a strong race into Candy to set him up for a peak performance the first Saturday in May. Hollendorfer got just what he wanted. The question being: could Chocolate Candy be considered a major player? My main concern was that Chocolate Candy had never raced outside of California, and all nine starts had been on synthetic surfaces. Despite running on conventional dirt for the first time at Churchill, as well as over a sloppy track, he ran very well. Chocolate was squeezed back soon after the start, finding himself quickly in seventeenth place. He rallied through traffic for a fifth place finish.
What should we expect from Chocolate Candy in the Belmont Stakes? Hollendorfer wisely passed the Preakness. He shipped Chocolate to Belmont a few days after the race to prepare for the "Test of Champions'. He has acclimated himself very well since arriving. Candy has worked three times over the track. I love the spacing of his morning drills. He has worked 4 furlongs, 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs. His final workout was an easy 5 furlongs last Monday. It was by design that the emphasis was clearly on building up his stamina. His pedigree points out that Chocolate Candy should be well suited to the 1 ½ mile distance. His sire Candy Ride won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 1 ¼ miles. His dam traces back to Triple Crown winner Affirmed. His trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, whom I have always had great respect for, has trained several Grade 1 winners such as King Glorious, winner of the 1988 Hollywood Futurity and the 1989 Haskell. Heatseeker won the 2008 Santa Anita Handicap. Hysterical Lady ran a close second in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Distaff. Hollendorfer has also won two Kentucky Oaks with Lite Lite and Pike Place Dancer. Obviously, he has shown an uncanny knack at winning prestigious races with northern California based horses. Chocolate Candy likes to be taken in hand early in the race and settle into his nice fluid stride before making his run. In the Belmont, he will be ridden for the first time by Garrett Gomez, who in my opinion, is the finest rider in the country. He is very good on front runners, but Gomez is at his best riding horses that rally from off the pace. I would not be shocked if Chocolate Candy wins the Belmont, but an "in the money" finish is more likely. He will be used in my exactas and trifectas.
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12th BEL 6f (Turf) MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $51,000. ( 7:10)/ 6:10/ 5:10/ 4:10
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 STORM HOPE 5/2 Has shown a lot more ability on grass than anyone else in this field, rallying to hit the board in both turf tries last year at age 2 while beaten a total of less than 3 lengths in those two races. He's probably grown and matured quite a bit since then and now returns with some sharp works for good layoff trainer Barclay Tagg. Tagg is having a great meet so far, with 10 winners from 42 starters, and lures top jockey Dominguez to ride, a sign that Storm Hope is well-meant first time off the layoff. His May 22 gate work also hints at more early speed than he showed last year.
6 GLOBEMASTER 10/1 Debuts for hot trainer Angel Penna Jr., who's won with 5 of his first 12 starters at this meet, mostly turf horses. Colt is bred top and bottom for grass but Penna's runners usually need a race or two before showing their best stuff.
3 WESTERN CONNECTION 4/1 Pressed the pace most of the way in his lone career start, with was a turf route over this course 7+ months ago. Gets a big positive rider change for this second career start to Alan Garcia, who's won 3 of 7 for trainer John Morrison in 2008-09, and he should have this gelding forwardly placed in a field without much proven early speed.
2 MONASTIR 8/1 Has hit the board in his last two starts, both 'off the turf' events that show that his connections have been eager to try him on grass for a while now. He showed improved early speed last time out and could sit fairly close to an expected mild pace. Turf breeding is okay.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (13)AFRIKANER (14)AFRICAN KNIGHT (16)GRACEFUL AFLEET (5)BRAVE SOUL
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13th BEL 6f (IT) Clm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $32,000. ( 7:45)/ 6:45/ 5:45/ 4:45
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10) Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
4 MANCHILD 2/1 Makes it two in a row for a hot barn. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
2 DRIVEN BY ROYAL 8/1 Speedy gelding will lead them as far as he can. He just failed to last May 8 in an off-the-turf race, losing by just a head at this class level, although he really had no excuse in that small field. Perhaps he'll fare a bit better on grass, as 2 of his 3 siblings to race on turf won.
7 CITY SNEAKERS 6/1 Came off a 6-month layoff and posted a game maiden victory for Linda Rice, who is the undisputed leader in turf sprints on this circuit. City Sneakers ran okay in two prior turf sprints but may be a better runner now at age 2, and certainly can improve second off the layoff. His versatility is also a plus.
8 MARRA MARRA 12/1 Ran better than appears when moving to turf April 25. He chased a blazing early pace in that turf route and was right there at the quarter pole before throwing in the towel. This cutback to a sprint is what he needs and he's won 1 of 2 prior sprints, although they were on dirt.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (4)MANCHILD (14)WANDAS DOUBLE (16)LINCOLN ROAD (2)DRIVEN BY ROYAL
#2 CONVOCATION (Race 3) Began his career earlier this year during the heart of the Gulfstream Park meeting, on a day when there was an intense speed bias. Son of top sire Pulpit broke slowly and sat in the back half of the field early on. Proceeded to make a steady run while wide and finished well for second against the grain of the track. Off that effort he was made the odds-on favorite in his second career start, stretching out to two turns. Breaking from a tough outside post, he proceeded to lose his best chance by ducking out sharply at the break and spotting the field about five lengths. He then entered the short run into the first turn well behind the field and very wide under new rider Javier Castellano. He continued to suffer a wide trip throughout and then proceeded to bear out turning for home, an indication of a soundness problem. Wrapped up late, he was only beaten 3-1/2 lengths for second despite a terrible trip coupled with an awful performance. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens learned his craft from one of the greatest horseman of all time, his father Allen, and as a result he doesn't make many mistakes. Jerkens gave this $340,000 purchase a freshening to fix whatever was ailing him and brought him back off a steady work pattern on May 2. If not for a brutal trip in which he was boxed in while stuck down on the inside for most of the running, he likely would have won over a very good field. Today he gets a favorable rider switch to Kent Desormeaux, and he should be set for a sharp performance with a race over the track while making his second start off the break. His best effort should win this race.
#6 FABULOUS STRIKE (Race 6) Cuts back to his best distance off a very game effort in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap, a 7-furlong race that is really a furlong beyond what he prefers. In that race he set a mercurial pace, put away his rival, and wasn't caught until deep stretch by an opportunistic closer. At 6 furlongs this son of top sire Smart Strike has won 9 of 14 races lifetime, and he has had very legitimate excuses in some of his rare losses such as the Breeders' Sprint last year, which was contested over synthetic track. This gelding has been training like a monster in the morning for trainer Todd Beattie, who wins at nearly a 30% clip with horses off 46-90 day layoffs. Three for five over Big Sandy, Fabulous Strike figures to sit a favorable trip pressing the pace from the outside under regular rider Ramon Dominguez. I look for him to take the lead turning for home and prove difficult to catch in the lane.
#8 JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE (Race 9) Was expected to present a challenge to the superfilly Rachel Alexandra in the G1 Kentucky Oaks, but was scratched the morning of that race when the track came up too wet. Streaking filly has won five straight races, including two Grade 2 events, all by relatively large margins, and she shows no signs of losing her sharp form. Since the scratch from the Ky Oaks she's shipped back to New York and has been working great over this track, where she broke her maiden last Oct 13. She's versatile enough to press or stalk the pace and could be sitting on a top performance while forced to sit 'on hold' for more than 2 months since her last race.
#4 MANCHILD (Race 13) NOTE: This play is for turf OR dirt. Although I much prefer this gelding if this race stays on the turf, I also like his chances if moved to dirt. He's raced for a claiming tag just twice so far in his career, and the results are a win and a close 2nd place finish. He raced in a turf sprint for the first time May 15 while also dropping in with claimers for just the second time, and the result was a comfortable win over this course and distance in solid time for the class level. He also had his blinkers removed for that race, but they didn't dull his early speed, as he pressed the pace from the start before taking over mid-stretch. Today he's very realistically spotted in hi first try against winners by hot trainer Carlos Martin, who's winning better than 30% so far at this meet. Winning jockey John Velazquez remains aboard and should have Manchild in a similar pace-pressing position today as they break outside of probable pacesetter Driven By Royal.
1st BEL 6f Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $53,000. (11:35)/10:35/ 9:35/ 8:35
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Race (1-3), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 DIXIELAND STAR 2/1 Returns from an 11-month layoff for hot trainer John Kimmel, who's winning nearly 30% at this meet. 4yo son of top NY sprint sire Hook and Ladder has run some strong races, better than the rest of this modest field has been able to produce, and his good 2nd place finish in his debut shows that he can fire fresh. He's hit the exacta in 3 of 4 starts over this track and regular rider Eibar Coa is back aboard.
3 INGER MANAGEMENT 5/2 Has speed to lead or press the pace and isn't really stepping up in class much off a atarter allowance win at Philly Park on May 4. The horse that finished 2nd behind him returned to finish 2nd in a $100,000 race at Penn National. Inger Management has finished 2nd in both prior starts at this NY bred allowance level, and if Dixieland Star isn't fit and ready enough off the layoff then this gelding should prevail.
9 BLOW UP 6/1 Added Lasix May 16 for his first start over this track and won by 5 widening lengths at 8-1. He need not improve all that much to contend in this spot and should factor for at least a minor award with his improving form.
2 NIGHT IN TUNISA 12/1 Won easily the only prior time that he made this turf-to-dirt move, and the win was over this track and distance. Should improve second start off the short layoff, with three more good works since the May 1 race.
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2nd BEL 7fAlwOClm $75,000 3yo and up, Purse: $55,000. (12:05)/11:05/10:05/ 9:05
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (2-4), Pick 4 Races (2-5),daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
6 MUCH THE BEST 8/5 $400,000 2yo purchase looks like he can clear to the lead fairly easily and never look back. Blinkers went on April 18 and he took off on the lead, setting too fast a pace but holding clear well into the final furlong at this same 7F trip. The blinkers came off May 16 and he was able to sit more patiently in 2nd. Today hot trainer Mike Hushion wants to sharpen that speed again so the hood is back on, and they have the good fortune of catching a field without another real front-runner.
3 SPEIGHT OF HAND 7/2 Returned from a 5-month layoff with a dominant win at this tough 7F distance on april 10, then ran a big race again May 10 when stretching out to 1-1/16 miles. Could be set for a top effort in his third start off the layoff and should have plenty of stamina on this cutback in distance. Trainer Chad Brown is 5 for 15 at this meet and excels with this route-to-sprint move, winning 22% in 2008-09.
7 JUST BEN 3/1 Chased Much The Best May 16 and finished right behind him in a good effort. Trouble-prone colt has yet to have a really good trip, mostly his own doing, yet has still shown plenty of ability and potential. Should be forwardly placed under John Velazquez.
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3rd BEL 1m MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $54,000. (12:37)/11:37/10:37/ 9:37
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 CONVOCATION 3/1 Gets the job done with a clean trip. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
10 ALLRIGHTSRESERVED 7/2 Looks like the main threat to Convocation as he makes back to back starts without a layoff for the first time in his career, a sign that he may be sounder and fitter than ever. He's finished a close 2nd in his last two starts, both at today's distance, and has shown versatility to lead or sit just off the pace.
11 WANTED ALIVE 5/1 Raced just once at age 2, finishing 4th in a very strong, 'key' race behind subsequent graded stakes winner Musket Man. Showed improvement when returning from a 6-month layoff May 9 and finished a close 2nd. Dominguez stays aboard.
12 FRENCHONIONSOUP 10/1 Found his best stride too late in his 4th place debut after a somewhat slow start. Adds Lasix now, a 25% winning angle for Bruce Levine, who's also won with 24% of his second time starters in 2008-09. Excellent wet track breeding.
6 WOODFORD MANHATTAN 15/1 Led all but the final yards when losing by a head in a fast race April 17. The winner of that event returned to win his next start as well. Didn't handle the turf 'experiment' May 16, but Nick Zito is not known for winning on grass. Should be set to rebound while moving to dirt.
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4th BEL 1 1/16m (IT)AlwOClm $50,000 3yo and up, Purse: $58,000. ( 1:10)/12:10/11:10/10:10
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6), Daily Double Wa
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 EXPANSION 3/1 Enters in career-best form after finishing 2nd twice in a row at this class level. His late-running style was compromised by a slow pace in those two races on April 4 and May 14 but he still finished powerfully for the place. He's hit the exacta in 7 of 9 lifetime starts on turf and lost by just a head in his only prior try over non-firm ground. Gets a much better post than he had last time out.
4 UNCLE INDY 5/1 Regally-bred horse is by one of the best sires of all time and out of the dam Auntie Mame, who was a G1 turf winner for this same trainer. Angel Penna Jr. has been on a tear at this meet, winning with 5 of 12 starters, and is at his best with turf horses. Uncle Indy has won two in a row and comes off his best career race, a clear win in very fast time where he flew thru his final furlong in :11-2/5. Cornelio Velasquez has been aboard for both victories and has won at a 30% rate when riding for Penna in 2008-09.
1 SPURRED 9/2 Makes his second start off a 10-month layoff and has been given time to recover from a game win at this distance in that race. He showed more tactical speed than he had in the past and loved the non-firm ground. He's always done well over non-firm turf and should love the footing today. Consistent 5yo has hit the board in 10 of 12 starts on grass, including 4 wins, and can save ground from post 1.
10 RADICAL SABBATICAL 8/1 Should be close to an expected mild pace despite his tough outside post. He has a win and a 2nd in two prior starts on Belmont turf and also likes non-firm ground.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (11)EVEN RAISE (12)JACK ON THE ROCKS (13)MR UNSTOPPABLE (5)IZANAGI
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5th BEL 1 1/16m (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $56,000. ( 1:50)/12:50/11:50/10:50
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
3 GET STORMY 6/1 Should have won both of his last two starts but had trouble each time. He loomed home free March 31 but ducked in sharply and lost his rider when leading by 5 lengths in the final furlong. He returned May 20 and only lost by 1/2 length despite being blocked for much of the stretch, finishing 2nd to a 4-5 winner. With any kind of reasonable racing room he could have won. Shows a great bullet work over Belmont turf on May 31 and should retain his sharp form. Now all he needs is a little luck.
5 LE GRAND CRU 10/1 Finished close behind Get Stormy on May 20 while making his first start on turf and first start in a route race. It was a very good performance and now he adds blinkers. He's bred top and bottom to run all day and could land on the lead with the addition of the hood.
13 HANGINGBYATHREAD 6/1 Might have been the top choice if not for the bad post that he'll have if he gets in from the AE list. He got very good at the end of last year, with a 5-length win over soft ground and then a tough loss by a neck and a nose at 25-1 in a stakes race. He returned from the 6-month layoff with a dominant win in fast time under a hand ride and should only improve second start back for a hot trainer.
10 SETTE E MEZZO 4/1 Won off a short layoff April 3 and then finished 3rd May 14 despite a bad trip. He was close to the pace that day but then fell back to 6th on the far turn when forced to check. He then re-rallied and made up about 4 lengths in the final furlong. Benefits from this slightly longer trip.
4 SO IT GOES 6/1 Versatile gelding rated in last place to the far turn and then finished fast to get up for 2nd at 18-1 May 14 when returning from an 8-month layoff. He's shown more tactical speed in the past and could be forwardly placed today while breaking from a much better post. He won his only prior start at this distance, which was also his only prior start on non-firm ground, and did so at 26-1.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (5)LE GRAND CRU (11)PRECURSOR (1A)HAITIAN SENSATION (15)OVEREXTENDED (14)JOE CORRIGAN
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6th BEL 6f Grade II 3yo and up, Purse: $250,000. ( 2:33)/ 1:33/12:33/11:33
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (6-8), Pick 6 Races (6-11), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
6 FABULOUS STRIKE 2/1 Returns to his winning ways while cutting back to his best distance. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
3 TWO STEP SALSA 3/1 Is undefeated and untested in two races since being privately purchased by mighty Godolphin Stable. His victory in the G2, $1 million Godolphin Mile on March 28 was impressive and he's been freshened since, with some fast recent works over this track. He's 3 for 3 lifetime in races at today's 6F distance and has the ability to win if Smart Strike is not at his best. 4yo colt likes the lead but has shown in his last two wins that he can also press or stalk the pace.
1 BENNY THE BULL 5/2 Last year's sprint champion was retired with a minor injury, then un-retired when that malady cleared up fairly quickly. Nonetheless, he hasn't raced in nearly 11 months, and is using this race as a 'prep' for a return engagement in the Smile Sprint Handicap, a G2 race that he won impressively last year and that capped off his 4 for 4 campaign. He has a powerful late kick and should get an honest pace to rally into, but isn't expected to be fully 'cranked up' for this race.
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7th BEL 1m (Turf) Grade I 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $400,000. ( 3:15)/ 2:15/ 1:15/12:15
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Grand Slam Races (7-10),daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 MY PRINCESS JESS 5/1 I like this filly's chances at an upset as she makes her second start off a 6-month layoff and is expected to get the kind of non-firm ground that she loves. She was a G2 winner over soft turf last year at Saratoga, and now at age 4 she seems to have matured and improved further. Her May 2 victory off the layoff was extremely impressive because she had to rally from behind a very slow pace after also waiting in traffic for racing room. Her final 5/16 of a mile in :29 flat over the 'good' turf was outstanding and improvement is likely today second start back. She's shown good tactical speed in the past and will probably get the jump on expected heavy favorite Forever Together.
5 FOREVER TOGETHER 6/5 Last year's female turf champion finkshed a close 3rd in this race at 44-1 in 2008 and has since won 4 of 5 starts, including three Grace 1 events. She returned from a layoff for her 2009 debut April 11 and picked up where she left off, roaring home for a relatively easy win in the G2 Jenny Wiley. She's been pointed here since and is the proven class of the field, but the possible slow pace will work against her, and she's probably better at distances longer than a mile.
1 CARRIBEAN SUNSET 6/1 Finished 2nd to My Princess Jess May 2 with a strong finish in a race she probably needed off the 7-month layoff. She's a 3-time Group Stakes winner and is also Group 1 stakes-placed, and should improve second off the layoff for top turf trainer Clement. He's won at a 36% rate second off of similar layoffs in 2008-09 and this filly is proven to love softer ground.
2 RAW SILK 10/1 Without much early speed in this race this filly could be allowed to set a mild pace at this distance where she's 2 for 2 lifetime. She won in very fast time April 11 off the 5-month layoff and should be even fitter second time back. She's okay on non-firm ground, but is probably better over firm footing.
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8th BEL 7f Grade II 3yo, Purse: $250,000. ( 3:59)/ 2:59/ 1:59/12:59
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (8-10), Pick 4 Races (8-11), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 THIS ONES FOR PHIL 7/2 Has run three huge races in four attempts since moving to the barn of Richard Dutrow Jr. Stalker won in blazing time Jan 24 an also won the G2 Swale at today's 7F distance when moved up via disqualification after being interfered with during a fierce stretch battle. Most recently he was badly blocked as the winner rolled by in the G3 Withers, then put in a resolute rally too late. With clear sailing he could have won. Reunites with Garrett Gomez, who was aboard for the Swale win, and should sit a good stalking trip a few lengths back.
8 HULL 3/1 Undefeated colt has won all 3 starts by widening margins but will face his toughest test by far today. Projects to press the pace from his outside post under regular jockey Mena and should be prominant all of the way while shortening up a bit in distance.
4 MUNNINGS 4/1 $1.7 million 2yo purchase showed much potential at age 2 when he won his debut in very fast time and then placed in two Grade 1 events, including the Champagne over this track. He came off a 6-month layoff with a big effort in a very fast race May 1 and should move forward today for top trainer Pletcher. Stalker projects to get a fast pace to rally into and he likes this 7F distance.
6 HELLO BROADWAY 12/1 Price play finished 2nd in the G2 Hutcheson in his only prior start at 7F. Most recently he ran better than appears in the 9-furlong Peter Pan over this track when he added blinkers and tore off to set a suicidal pace. The blinkers come off today and he should have plenty of stamina while probably reverting to stalking tactics.
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9th BEL 1m Grade I 3yo Fillies, Purse: $300,000. ( 4:44)/ 3:44/ 2:44/ 1:44
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10) Pick 3 Races (9-11), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE 8/5 Finds a good spot to notch her first G1 victory. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
7 DREAM PLAY 6/1 Has been improving all year for Kiaran McLaughlin while playing 'second fiddle' to stablemate Justwhistledixie. Loved the initial stretch to a route on April 11 when she led all the way to win in fast time in the 1-mile Comely, also around one turn. She's been pointed here since, and if for some reason Justwhistledixie doesn't bring her best stuff, then this filly looks like the most likely upsetter.
9 FOUR GIFTS 6/1 Stalker won her second graded stakes race May 2 when she returned from a freshening to win the Eight Belles at a similar distance at Churchill Downs. She rarely misfires and should get an honest pace to stalk and rally into.
5 DOREMIFASOLLATIDO 6/1 Has 2 wins and 2 2nds over this track, including a strong victory in the G2 Matron last Sept 13. Versatile filly got a useful 'prep' May 15 off the 7-month layoff and was not abused when well clear of 3rd behind an odds-on winner who ran a hole in the wind. Should improve second time back for high-percentage trainer Jimmy Jerkens but must show that she can be effective in a race beyond 7F.
2 GABBY'S GOLDEN GAL 15/1 Set a very fast pace in her route debut March 29 but had plenty left in the tank to run away from her field in the stretch and win by 13 lengths in fast time. Faced a much tougher group in the Ky Oaks May 1 and wilted in the final furlong after leading most of the way. Should benefit from this cutback to a mile and could get very brave up front at big odds.
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10th BEL 1 1/4m (IT) Grade I 3yo and up, Purse: $400,000. ( 5:34)/ 4:34/ 3:34/ 2:34
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (10-12), Pick 4 Races (10-13),daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
5 GIO PONTI 7/2 Has been a classy and versatile turf horse from the start for top turf trainer Christophe Clement. He was a turf stakes winner at age 2 and a multiple graded turf stakes winner at age 3, including the G2 Virginia Derby at today's distance. However, now at age 4 he seems to have reached a new level. His powerful victory from far off the pace in the G1 Kilroe Mile last time out was his best race yet as he showed that his tremendous late turn of foot is as effective at a mile as it is at a mile and a quarter. With three months between starts he enters this race fresh and fit, with a history of running very well when fresh, including a victory in the G3 Hill Prince on Belmont turf a year ago to the day. Ramon Dominguez rode him last time out, but no one knows Gio Ponti better than Garrett Gomez, and he regains the mount today.
1 COURT VISION 4/1 Was a G1 winner at this distance in the Hollywood Derby and should appreciate the stretch out from the 9-furlong G1 Turf Classic on May 2. In that race he finished fast go get up for 3rd after trailing a mild pace. He's been pointed to this race by Hall Of Famer Bill Mott since then and hw won his only prior race on Belmont turf, winning the G2 Jamaica over non-firm ground.
12 COWBOY CAL 3/1 Put forth his typical gutsy effort in the G1 Turf Classic May 2 to miss by just a head to multiple G1 winner Einstein while finishing nearly 3 lengths clear of Court Vision in 3rd. This multiple G2 winner almost always runs his heart out and has hit the exacta in 10 of 13 lifetime starts over many different racing surfaces, almost all of them against graded stakes company. The outside post is tough but he has good early speed and should be able to secure a good pressing or stalking position before the first turn.
9 COSMONAUT 6/1 Can lead or sit just off the pace and should move forward in his second start off the 10-month layoff. His May 2 victory was excellent and in fast time over the 'good' turf, and he may be even better over softer footing. This distance is probably longer than his best but if the pace is slow then he can last for a minor award, as he did in his last start before the layoff.
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11th BEL 1 1/2m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $1,000,000. ( 6:27)/ 5:27/ 4:27/ 3:27
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Pick 3 Races (11-13),double Wagers Leg B - Brooklyn/belmont Double
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 DUNKIRK 4/1 Dunkirk did not exactly make an immediate splash in the water. He never had a chance to. This well-bred son of Unbridled's Song never made it to the races as a two-year-old. Minor shin problems placed his racing career on hold. One has to believe that at some juncture, as a juvenile, this Todd Pletcher trained runner showed some type of promise. So, Dunkirk was given all the time necessary to put that problem behind.
When Dunkirk finally made his belated debut at Gulfstream Park on January 24, he did so with a steady, prolonged, and evenly-spaced, workout regimen at the Palm Meadows training center. To say he was well-prepared would be understated. Despite working out away from prying eyes at Gulfstream Park, Dunkirk was bet down to an 8-5 favoritism. There are some secrets that are not meant to be kept. Overcoming a lethargic start that day, with jockey Edgar Prado aboard, Dunkirk was forced to subsequently steady around the far turn. Undeterred, when he was finally in the clear, he accelerated nicely in the stretch to gain the lead, eventually winning by 5 3/4 lengths under modest encouragement. Dunkirk had lived up to his advanced notices, and even better things lay ahead for him. Dunkirk returned to the races rather quickly, tackling a field of preliminary Allowance runners around two turns on February 19. In addition, he would stretch out to 1 1/8 miles, and would be saddled with an outside post as well. Dispatched as the 6-5 favorite, Dunkirk was impressive once again in victory. A wide trip while losing valuable ground throughout, did nothing to discourage him, as he improved his position heading into the far turn under new jockey Garrett Gomez. Upon entering the stretch, he was kicked into overdrive, spurting away to a daylight lead and then continued to the wire. Dunkirk had accomplished much in a relatively short amount of time. And yet, even more would be asked of him the following month, as he would make his stakes debut in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
In my opinion, the Florida Derby was a two-horse affair between Quality Road and Dunkirk. A sense of urgency was present for Dunkirk to win the Florida Derby as he had not won a penny of graded stakes money. A win would ensure him a spot in the Kentucky Derby. A second-place finish, or worse in the race, would place him on the bubble. Dunkirk not only had to beat six rivals in the Florida Derby, but he had a significant speed bias to overcome as well. His off-the-pace running style would not be flattered by the prevailing bias, and he would be disadvantaged by a lack of pace in the race as well. Also, he had never faced a horse that was even close to the caliber of Quality Road. But, Dunkirk didn't know all that. When Gomez 'chirped' to him halfway down the Gulfstream Park backstretch, almost instantaneously, Dunkirk was in full stride. He made up ground so rapidly that jockey John Velasquez, who was aboard Quality Road was caught off guard as Dunkirk gained a brief, but tenuous lead. However, Quality Road was nowhere near done. The eventual winner responded readily when asked to quicken, slowly edging away from Dunkirk in the final furlong to register a 1 3/4 length victory. Dunkirk acquitted himself quite well in defeat. In fact, it was his best effort to date, despite finishing second, he gave away a huge tactical edge to the winner over a speed-biased track. His sustained bid from the backstretch to the furlong marker virtually sapped all the energy out of him, and he could not complete what he started, despite giving it his all. Of course he was tired 'pulling up' after the race. He had just run the race of his life in just his third career effort, and he was playing 'catch-up' due to an unscheduled late start.
Following the Florida Derby, Quality Road was going to be my selection to win the Kentucky Derby. I felt he had the most upside of all his three year old rivals. He possessed excellent tactical speed, a pedigree to handle the 1 ¼ mile distance, and a top trainer in Jimmy Jerkens calling the shots. Unfortunately, for Quality Road, and his connections, he developed a quarter crack in his right front foot shortly after the Florida Derby, which made his status for the Derby uncertain. A second quarter crack was spotted less than two weeks before the big dance. On the Monday before the "Run for the Roses", Jerkins declared him out of the race. With the likely favorite on the sidelines, the big money would be spread out between Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, and Pioneerof the Nile. I knew where my money was going, and that was on Dunkirk. My reasoning was simple. If I felt that Quality Road was the best three year old, and Dunkirk ran a strong second to him, despite his lack of seasoning, any improvement would be more than enough to handle what I felt were a bunch of mediocre three year olds!
Dunkirk arrived at Churchill Downs the Tuesday before the Derby. I had heard from a reliable source that he acted up badly when schooling in the paddock the following day. I was concerned about this behavior, and hoped that he would become more relaxed as he got more acclimated with his new surroundings. I did get my chance on Saturday, as I watched intently when Dunkirk was led in to his stall to be saddled. He showed no signs of being unsettled and at no point did he fight his handlers. Once the tack was put on, and he was led into the walking ring to circle around his admirers, Dunkirk took in all sights very calm and collected. I felt that he was now ready to do battle with his eighteen rivals.
As a result of intermittent showers on Friday, which became heavier throughout the evening, the main track was listed sloppy on Saturday. The forecast called for more rain throughout the day, but it never materialized. Without any sun, and cool weather throughout the afternoon, the track never dried out. When the Derby rolled around, it was evident that the field would be running over a very tricky surface. The track was saturated with water and very heavy to the hooves running over it. It is track conditions like this, which plays havoc to form. Horses either relish the goo or hate it. In the case of the 50-1 upset winner Mine That Bird, who took to the track like a fish takes to water, the rest of the field, who were left in his wake, were just spinning their wheels over it. On first glance, you might think that Dunkirk fit this profile, but on closer inspection, it was not the slop that did him in, it was his journey, and it was horrific from the start. As soon as the gate opened, Dunkirk stumbled badly and almost went down. Jockey Edgar Prado had to hold on for dear life not to fall off, but his uncanny riding skills, allowed him to stay aboard, and get Dunkirk back on stride. As he approached the first turn, Prado had to put on the brakes as he was forced to take up when squeezed between horses. Dunkirk found himself towards the back of the pack. He was able to launch a mild rally, approaching the far turn, but it was short lived. The best he could do was run eleventh, in a "better than it looked" performance.
Dunkirk's connections showed no interest in running him in the Preakness two weeks later. Instead he would ship back to his home base at Belmont Park to prepare for the Belmont Stakes. It took only sixteen days to recover from this hard effort. Dunkirk worked 4 furlongs on May 18. His time of: 47 1/5 breezing, was the quickest of sixty horses who worked the same distance that morning. He was back on his game and ready to redeem himself.
What should we expect from Dunkirk in the Belmont Stakes? He was my selection to win the Kentucky Derby and he will once again be my choice to earn top honors in the third leg of the Triple Crown. The Belmont Stakes is considered The Test of Champions. The 1 ½ mile distance is uncharted waters for all three years. Many talented horses that have looked like sure winners with an eighth of a mile to the finish line, simply run out of steam. The Belmont Stakes has proven not to be kind to deep closers, like Mine That Bird, who figure to be overbet off his Derby win and a fast closing second in the Preakness. Many people will believe that if he can make up so much ground at a shorter distance, then he should benefit the longer he goes. Horses that have tactical speed, win most Belmont's, especially if they can relax early on in the race, and receive a well timed ride, as they make their move to the lead. Those who are racing towards the back of the pack expend too much energy to catch up. Because of the distance, Dunkirk will race in mid pack, and make his move on the far turn. He has a long stride that will benefit from the wide sweeping turns at Belmont, in contrast to the tighter turns, like he would have had to negotiate at Pimlico in the Preakness. Trainer Todd Pletcher is making a jockey change to John Velazquez, who is Pletchers' main go to rider. Velazquez has not been aboard Dunkirk before. He had ridden Quality Road to victory in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, in preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher hooked up with Velazquez to win the 2007 Belmont Stakes aboard the filly Rags to Riches, who then upset two time horse of the year Curlin.
6 CHARITABLE MAN 3/1 If you are looking for a stranger to back in the Belmont Stakes, Charitable Man fits the bill. In a year where the three year old crop is at best just an average one, a fresh horse, which has not been put through the rigors of the Triple Crown trail, must be respected. When you also throw into the mix that Charitable Man has excellent tactical speed, is based at Belmont Park, and is trained by one of the finest horseman in the country, it just adds to his allure. Charitable Man could not have been more impressive when he won his debut last August at Saratoga. Right from the start, he zipped to the lead, put away pace pressure on the far turn, and drew off to a convincing win in very fast time. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin thought so much of Charitable Man's victory, that in his first start at Belmont Park he quickly moved him into stakes company in the Grade 2 Futurity. Bet down to the 7-5 favorite, he did not disappoint. Despite scoring by only one length, his win was much more impressive than it looked on paper. In his debut, Charitable Man went wire to wire. In the futurity, he was taken back towards the rear of the pack in a seven horse field. On the far turn, jockey Alan Garcia let him loose with a wide sweeping move, and within an instant, Charitable Man inhaled his competition. He needed only a strong hand,urging to post his second impressive victory. Two weeks after the Futurity, McLaughlin discovered the colt had a saucer fracture in his shin. This untimely injury required surgery and a screw had to be inserted in his leg. It was removed in early December. His rehabilitation took place in the pool (called an Aqua-ciser). Soon,Charitable Man was on his way to a complete recovery. He returned to training at the end of January. It wasn't long after, that his connections began to get Derby fever.
Charitable Man did most of his training at Palm Meadows in Florida. Each workout was stronger than the previous one. He had accumulated a $150,000 in graded earnings, based on his win in the Futurity as a two year old, which put him in the running for a starting berth in the Kentucky Derby. All he needed was to hit the board in the Grade 1 Bluegrass at Keeneland, to secure his spot in the gate. McLaughlin knew that it would be a tough task for Charitable Man to win a Grade 1 race off a seven month layoff and an injury which could have been a career ending one. When he drew post nine, his prospects became dimmer. Time was running out, so there was no other recourse but to run. Charitable Man had never run over a synthetic surface, but a few weeks prior to the Bluegrass, he was shipped to Ocala (OBS), and was able to train over it. He showed a fondness for the surface, which gave his connections confidence that he could handle it at Keeneland. Nevertheless, many horses work well over synthetic surfaces,but, don't respond the same way on race day. Right from the start in the Bluegrass, Charitable Man was hung out very wide, and could make no impact when asked to run on the far turn. He ended up running seventh, beaten nearly eight lengths. At first glance, it did not appear that coming off a race like that, would inspire much confidence, that he was ready to be competitive in the Derby. However, McLaughlin had a far different opinion. Jockey Garcia said right from the start that Charitable Man could not handle the surface. He came out of the race in excellent shape. Owner Bill Warren agreed with McLaughlin that it would be wise to pass the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and instead point for the Belmont Stakes. They would use the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 9 as a "key" stepping stone towards their ultimate goal. McLaughlin never wavered in his confidence. In the days leading up to the race, he believed that Charitable Man was going to bounce back in a big way. True to his word, he got just what he was looking for, a decisive victory over six other rivals, which would set him up beautifully for the Belmont four weeks later. Personally, I felt that he sat a perfect trip, inheriting the lead from a very tired pacesetter in mid stretch. The second place finisher Imperial Council, came back to run a dismal eighth in the Shadwell Met Mile on Memorial Day.
What should we expect from Charitable Man in the Belmont Stakes? There are too many positives to dismiss his chances to run a winning race. He will have to take another big step forward off his win in the Peter Pan, but the verdict is still out on how good he really is. Clearly Charitable Man is a "live" wild card for reasons mentioned earlier. With the exception of Miner's Escape, who I would consider "cheap speed", he will have the perfect target to run at. If he can open a nice lead turning for home, he will have a tactical advantage over the closers. If he can stay the grueling 1 ½ mile distance, his chances for a mild upset becomes that much better. His pedigree says he should be able to. His sire Lemon Drop Kid, won the 1999 Belmont Stakes. Kiaran McLaughlin also has a Belmont victory to his credit, training Jazil to win the 2006 Belmont, despite having just a maiden win to his credit. I will be using Charitable Man on all my tickets.
7 MINE THAT BIRD 2/1 If you told me before the Kentucky Derby that Mine That Bird would upset the field, run second in the Preakness, and go off the favorite in the Belmont Stakes, I would think you were out of your mind and then some. Mine That Bird had shown nothing in his three year old form to consider him a viable contender in the Derby. It was just a matter of how far back he would be at the finish. When he crossed the wire in front, leaving the rest of the field in his wake, I looked up at the tote board thinking he was 99-1. When I noticed he was just 50-1, I was stunned, thinking that maybe someone knew something that I didn't. When it turned out that the owner and trainer did not bet a dime, and that the connections who owned Mine That Bird prior to selling him, bet $10.00 across the board, his low price could only be a result of Calvin Borel being aboard. Borel is a fan favorite at Churchill Downs. He had won the Kentucky Oaks the day before aboard Rachel Alexandra, as well as several races on the undercard on Friday and Saturday. I, like many others, thought his easy win in the Derby was a result of Mine That Bird relishing the sloppy track, closing up the inside, which was the best part of the track that day, and running by very tired horses that disliked the going. For all those reasons, I picked against him in the Preakness, even though I did use him underneath Rachel Alexandra in the trifecta on my stakes sheet. I must admit, that Mine That Bird fooled me again. It was a no brainer that Borel was going to ride Rachel over the Bird if she was entered in the Preakness. When owner Jess Jackson gave the green light to run, Mike Smith was chosen as the new rider. Everyone knew that similar closing tactics would be employed. No one can argue that Rachel was a deserving winner. Actually, I felt she ran a better race than Mine That Bird, as she did all the dirty work to help his late kick. Rachel had to be hard used when the gate opened, in order to secure a good position from her outside post. She chased a quick pace, and then had to make a strong middle move to take command midway on the far turn. From that point on to the finish, Rachel had to run very hard. Not unexpectedly, she was a very tired horse in deep stretch, but was able to hold on because of her ability and a big heart. It was likely that Rachel would have been run down by the Bird if the race was a bit longer and if Mike Smith was not forced to steady behind a wall of horses approaching the stretch while in full flight. Smith had to swing out very wide into the stretch and the Bird took off again to go after the filly and simply ran out of ground. He made a believer out of me. Even in defeat, the Bird impressed me as much as he did in the Derby. In the Preakness, he was able to duplicate his form over a dry surface, rallying outside of horses and overcoming adversity, which was a totally different set of circumstances from what he was faced with in Kentucky. What the Preakness also proved to me, was that Mine That Bird was on the improve and the rest of his male counterparts were not only average at best (with the exception of Musket Man, who runs his A race every time he sets foot on the track), but were "over the top" and in need of a rest.
The million dollar question is how Mine That Bird became the best three year old male in the country in just a matter of a few weeks, when he had proven to be several notches below in ability than what he was going to face in the Kentucky Derby. The only way I can explain it is twofold. He peaked at the right time, and responded to totally different riding tactics than what he was used to running in all his prior starts. Mine That Bird has proven without a doubt, that he wants to be taken far back early in the race and then begin his closing run midway on the far turn. What is amazing about the Bird is that he can sustain his rally for as long as he does. When every horse begins to tire in deep stretch, he continues to fly on.
What can we expect from Mine That Bird in the Belmont Stakes? With the exception of Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy and the new shooter Charitable Man, any of the other horses would be a surprise if they were to win. Mine That Bird has earned the right to be the choice of the public. Because the race is 1 ½ miles, there is a big question mark whether his rivals can handle the distance. I don't feel that this will be the case at all with the Bird. Nevertheless, as the favorite, I prefer to go with Dunkirk, who I feel was eliminated early on in the Derby. If he runs the race I expect he will, then Mine That Bird will have to snatch him from behind. It's very possible, but my money says he won't. My opinion may turn out to be wrong, but always remember, you can still make money if you wager correctly. That is why I provide you my wagering strategies. I am not so foolish that I will not put the Bird on top on some of my suggested tickets.
1 CHOCOLATE CANDY 10/1 If you feel that Pioneerof the Nile was a major contender to win the Kentucky Derby, than you would have had to consider Chocolate Candy as well. These horses have faced each other twice. Pioneer won both times. They met as 2 year olds in the Cash Call Futurity, a race in which Pioneer defeated Candy by 1 ½ lengths. They met again in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Candy rallied from off the pace to fall a length short. Despite the defeat, I felt he ran just as well as his rival .The complexion of the race changed dramatically when speedballs Z Day and The Pamplemousse were both late scratches. They would have ensured fast fractions which would have benefitted a horse like Chocolate Candy, who likes to lay back, and make one late run. Confronted with a new pace scenario in which the early fractions would be much slower, Candy was faced with a much tougher task in trying to run down the heavy favorite Pioneerof the Nile. As the field approached the stretch, Candy was last of seven. He sustained a strong wide rally, but simply ran out of ground and had to settle for second. His trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who is the perennial "king" of racing in northern California, indicated in the days leading up to the race that Chocolate Candy would not be at his best. He just wanted to get a strong race into Candy to set him up for a peak performance the first Saturday in May. Hollendorfer got just what he wanted. The question being: could Chocolate Candy be considered a major player? My main concern was that Chocolate Candy had never raced outside of California, and all nine starts had been on synthetic surfaces. Despite running on conventional dirt for the first time at Churchill, as well as over a sloppy track, he ran very well. Chocolate was squeezed back soon after the start, finding himself quickly in seventeenth place. He rallied through traffic for a fifth place finish.
What should we expect from Chocolate Candy in the Belmont Stakes? Hollendorfer wisely passed the Preakness. He shipped Chocolate to Belmont a few days after the race to prepare for the "Test of Champions'. He has acclimated himself very well since arriving. Candy has worked three times over the track. I love the spacing of his morning drills. He has worked 4 furlongs, 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs. His final workout was an easy 5 furlongs last Monday. It was by design that the emphasis was clearly on building up his stamina. His pedigree points out that Chocolate Candy should be well suited to the 1 ½ mile distance. His sire Candy Ride won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 1 ¼ miles. His dam traces back to Triple Crown winner Affirmed. His trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, whom I have always had great respect for, has trained several Grade 1 winners such as King Glorious, winner of the 1988 Hollywood Futurity and the 1989 Haskell. Heatseeker won the 2008 Santa Anita Handicap. Hysterical Lady ran a close second in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Distaff. Hollendorfer has also won two Kentucky Oaks with Lite Lite and Pike Place Dancer. Obviously, he has shown an uncanny knack at winning prestigious races with northern California based horses. Chocolate Candy likes to be taken in hand early in the race and settle into his nice fluid stride before making his run. In the Belmont, he will be ridden for the first time by Garrett Gomez, who in my opinion, is the finest rider in the country. He is very good on front runners, but Gomez is at his best riding horses that rally from off the pace. I would not be shocked if Chocolate Candy wins the Belmont, but an "in the money" finish is more likely. He will be used in my exactas and trifectas.
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12th BEL 6f (Turf) MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $51,000. ( 7:10)/ 6:10/ 5:10/ 4:10
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 STORM HOPE 5/2 Has shown a lot more ability on grass than anyone else in this field, rallying to hit the board in both turf tries last year at age 2 while beaten a total of less than 3 lengths in those two races. He's probably grown and matured quite a bit since then and now returns with some sharp works for good layoff trainer Barclay Tagg. Tagg is having a great meet so far, with 10 winners from 42 starters, and lures top jockey Dominguez to ride, a sign that Storm Hope is well-meant first time off the layoff. His May 22 gate work also hints at more early speed than he showed last year.
6 GLOBEMASTER 10/1 Debuts for hot trainer Angel Penna Jr., who's won with 5 of his first 12 starters at this meet, mostly turf horses. Colt is bred top and bottom for grass but Penna's runners usually need a race or two before showing their best stuff.
3 WESTERN CONNECTION 4/1 Pressed the pace most of the way in his lone career start, with was a turf route over this course 7+ months ago. Gets a big positive rider change for this second career start to Alan Garcia, who's won 3 of 7 for trainer John Morrison in 2008-09, and he should have this gelding forwardly placed in a field without much proven early speed.
2 MONASTIR 8/1 Has hit the board in his last two starts, both 'off the turf' events that show that his connections have been eager to try him on grass for a while now. He showed improved early speed last time out and could sit fairly close to an expected mild pace. Turf breeding is okay.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (13)AFRIKANER (14)AFRICAN KNIGHT (16)GRACEFUL AFLEET (5)BRAVE SOUL
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13th BEL 6f (IT) Clm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $32,000. ( 7:45)/ 6:45/ 5:45/ 4:45
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta (.10) Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
4 MANCHILD 2/1 Makes it two in a row for a hot barn. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
2 DRIVEN BY ROYAL 8/1 Speedy gelding will lead them as far as he can. He just failed to last May 8 in an off-the-turf race, losing by just a head at this class level, although he really had no excuse in that small field. Perhaps he'll fare a bit better on grass, as 2 of his 3 siblings to race on turf won.
7 CITY SNEAKERS 6/1 Came off a 6-month layoff and posted a game maiden victory for Linda Rice, who is the undisputed leader in turf sprints on this circuit. City Sneakers ran okay in two prior turf sprints but may be a better runner now at age 2, and certainly can improve second off the layoff. His versatility is also a plus.
8 MARRA MARRA 12/1 Ran better than appears when moving to turf April 25. He chased a blazing early pace in that turf route and was right there at the quarter pole before throwing in the towel. This cutback to a sprint is what he needs and he's won 1 of 2 prior sprints, although they were on dirt.
Race Notes: SELECTIONS IF ON DIRT: (4)MANCHILD (14)WANDAS DOUBLE (16)LINCOLN ROAD (2)DRIVEN BY ROYAL
[FONT=Courier New, Courier, monospace]JOHN PIESEN RACING
SATURDAY JUNE 6,2009[/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New, Courier, monospace]Race 11: THE BELMONT STAKES
#6 Charitable Man 3-1 (best bet)
#7 Mine That Bird 2-1
#1 Chocolate Candy 10-1
#10 Brave Victory 15-1[/FONT]
Play #6 to Win
Key #6 first over #1-7-10 in exacta and trifecta:toast:
SATURDAY JUNE 6,2009[/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New, Courier, monospace]Race 11: THE BELMONT STAKES
#6 Charitable Man 3-1 (best bet)
#7 Mine That Bird 2-1
#1 Chocolate Candy 10-1
#10 Brave Victory 15-1[/FONT]
Play #6 to Win
Key #6 first over #1-7-10 in exacta and trifecta:toast:
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
Saturday At Belmont
Race 4
#10- Radical Sabbatical
Race 6
#1- Benny The Bull
Race 8
#8- Hull
Race 9
#9- Four Gifts
Race 10
-BOX-
#1- Court Vision
#12- Cowboy Cal
longshot- #8- Better Talk Know
Race 11
#6- Charitable Man
#2- Dunkirk
#8- Flying Private
#1- Chocolate Candy
Saturday At Belmont
Race 4
#10- Radical Sabbatical
Race 6
#1- Benny The Bull
Race 8
#8- Hull
Race 9
#9- Four Gifts
Race 10
-BOX-
#1- Court Vision
#12- Cowboy Cal
longshot- #8- Better Talk Know
Race 11
#6- Charitable Man
#2- Dunkirk
#8- Flying Private
#1- Chocolate Candy
DRF Belmont
Eleventh Race
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1. Dunkirk 2. Charitable Man 3. Mine That Bird
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Dunkirk developed quickly, running three progressively faster races and leaving strong visual impressions each time. First out, he drew away powerfully from Santana Six, who has since run three Beyer Speed Figures in the mid-90s. Up in class and distance, he was very wide on the clubhouse turn, a road to ruin at Gulfstream, yet still dominated Warrior's Reward, who ran a 106 Beyer winning an allowance on Kentucky Oaks Day. Dunkirk was repelled in track-record time by Quality Road in the Florida Derby. However, that was on a lightning-fast track (the seven-furlong mark also fell in the Swale) that received a Racing Flow rating of -151, one of the five most speed-favoring days of the meet. Dunkirk's electrifying wide turn move was into the teeth of the bias. Provided the track is fast, Dunkirk's Derby debacle is a routine throw-out, and Todd Pletcher is peerless at regrouping with horses after an off race. Charitable Man has Belmont Stakes written all over his pedigree, as his sire, Lemon Drop Kid, won the race off a third in the Peter Pan and was out of a Seattle Slew mare. Excluding a wide trip on a synthetic surface off a seven-month layoff, Charitable Man has been much the best every time. He has tractable speed and clearly gets over Big Sandy exceptionally well. While Charitable Man may be sitting on a forward move after bettering his best juvenile figures by a couple lengths, he has to improve if Dunkirk or Mine That Bird also fire their best shot. Though he won't be a bargain in the win pool, it would be foolish to leave him out of exotics. Had Rachel Alexandra run in Saturday's Acorn, as originally planned by her former connections, instead of wiring the Preakness off a private purchase, Mine That Bird would be The Word, with an improbable but very real shot at a Triple Crown. Two caution flags: * Mine That Bird's dramatic improvement coincided with a transformation to deep closer, a style that hasn't historically played well in the Belmont unless a suicidal pace develops. * If one 25-point jump to a new Beyer top doesn't cause a bounce, a pair-up usually will. Miner's Escape is improving for owner Bob LaPenta and trainer Nick Zito, and will be able to slow things down on the lead. Ring a bell?DUNKIRK
#'s 2-6-7
Eleventh Race
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1. Dunkirk 2. Charitable Man 3. Mine That Bird
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Dunkirk developed quickly, running three progressively faster races and leaving strong visual impressions each time. First out, he drew away powerfully from Santana Six, who has since run three Beyer Speed Figures in the mid-90s. Up in class and distance, he was very wide on the clubhouse turn, a road to ruin at Gulfstream, yet still dominated Warrior's Reward, who ran a 106 Beyer winning an allowance on Kentucky Oaks Day. Dunkirk was repelled in track-record time by Quality Road in the Florida Derby. However, that was on a lightning-fast track (the seven-furlong mark also fell in the Swale) that received a Racing Flow rating of -151, one of the five most speed-favoring days of the meet. Dunkirk's electrifying wide turn move was into the teeth of the bias. Provided the track is fast, Dunkirk's Derby debacle is a routine throw-out, and Todd Pletcher is peerless at regrouping with horses after an off race. Charitable Man has Belmont Stakes written all over his pedigree, as his sire, Lemon Drop Kid, won the race off a third in the Peter Pan and was out of a Seattle Slew mare. Excluding a wide trip on a synthetic surface off a seven-month layoff, Charitable Man has been much the best every time. He has tractable speed and clearly gets over Big Sandy exceptionally well. While Charitable Man may be sitting on a forward move after bettering his best juvenile figures by a couple lengths, he has to improve if Dunkirk or Mine That Bird also fire their best shot. Though he won't be a bargain in the win pool, it would be foolish to leave him out of exotics. Had Rachel Alexandra run in Saturday's Acorn, as originally planned by her former connections, instead of wiring the Preakness off a private purchase, Mine That Bird would be The Word, with an improbable but very real shot at a Triple Crown. Two caution flags: * Mine That Bird's dramatic improvement coincided with a transformation to deep closer, a style that hasn't historically played well in the Belmont unless a suicidal pace develops. * If one 25-point jump to a new Beyer top doesn't cause a bounce, a pair-up usually will. Miner's Escape is improving for owner Bob LaPenta and trainer Nick Zito, and will be able to slow things down on the lead. Ring a bell?DUNKIRK
#'s 2-6-7
Belmont Saturday
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APwins
Belmont Stakes picks
1st #4 Summer Bird 12/1....Ready to explode late today
2nd #7 Mine that Bird 2/1...Borel comes up short
3rd #9 Miners Escape 15/1...Bomber shot on front end
4th #6 Charitable Man 3/1...can go all the way on the front
5th #2 Dunkirk 4/1....exotics a must
play Summer Bird ,w,p,s keying the exotics
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APwins
Belmont Stakes picks
1st #4 Summer Bird 12/1....Ready to explode late today
2nd #7 Mine that Bird 2/1...Borel comes up short
3rd #9 Miners Escape 15/1...Bomber shot on front end
4th #6 Charitable Man 3/1...can go all the way on the front
5th #2 Dunkirk 4/1....exotics a must
play Summer Bird ,w,p,s keying the exotics
Wunderdog
BELMONT PARK Race #5 at 1:50 PM Eastern
BELMONT PARK Race #5 at 1:50 PM Eastern
Top pick: #7 (PARC DES PRINCESS) - Brazilian import has been freshened-up by a solid California trainer (Paulo Lobo) who is spending his first season at Belmont Park. Lightly-raced runner ran strong in a pair last year when he first came from Brazil and was in the barn of Bob Frankel. Working nicely for his first race in almost seven weeks and he can either go to the front or rate just off the lead. The top pick, and at a square price.
<!--p-->2nd pick: #5 (Le Grand Cru) - Son of "Dynaformer" is lightly raced, improving, and in the barn of "Hall of Fame" trainer H. Allen Jerkens. Ran well last out in his first grass race when lasix was added for the attempt, and can factor here with any further improvement in his second on the infield.
3rd pick: #2 (Rock In Rage) - Brazilian-bred, but he raced in Argentina when in South America. Shadwell import is nicely bred and raced well in a pair at this level on the Keeneland turf earlier this year. Has a stalking style, draws the hedge, and is a win threat.
4th pick: #3 (Get Stormy) - Has the best last race of any entered, finishing second at this level here on May 20, going a mile. He's come back to work well since and will turnaround quickly for this (17 days) after being idle for seven weeks.
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park
RACE #6 - BELMONT PARK - 2:33 PM EASTERN POST
The True North Handicap
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE II THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $250,000.00 PURSE
#6 FABULOUS STRIKE
#1 BENNY THE BULL
#3 TWO STEP SALSA
#2 SILVER EDITION
The True north Handicap was named for the 1945 winner of the Fall Highweight Handicap. True North carried 140 pounds, most of it jockey Ted Atkinson, while covering the six furlongs in 1:08 4/5. It has been run at Belmont Park at the distance of six furlongs since its inception in 1979. Here in the 31st running of this stakes race, #6 FABULOUS STRIKE has won an impressive 11 of 16 in his career to date sprinting at, or about, 6.0 furlongs on the dirt and hit hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight, winning twice in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Ramon Dominguez has been in his irons on 8 previous occasions, hitting the board in 7, winning 5 times - Dominguez is back today for his 9th ride.
RACE #6 - BELMONT PARK - 2:33 PM EASTERN POST
The True North Handicap
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE II THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $250,000.00 PURSE
#6 FABULOUS STRIKE
#1 BENNY THE BULL
#3 TWO STEP SALSA
#2 SILVER EDITION
The True north Handicap was named for the 1945 winner of the Fall Highweight Handicap. True North carried 140 pounds, most of it jockey Ted Atkinson, while covering the six furlongs in 1:08 4/5. It has been run at Belmont Park at the distance of six furlongs since its inception in 1979. Here in the 31st running of this stakes race, #6 FABULOUS STRIKE has won an impressive 11 of 16 in his career to date sprinting at, or about, 6.0 furlongs on the dirt and hit hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight, winning twice in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Ramon Dominguez has been in his irons on 8 previous occasions, hitting the board in 7, winning 5 times - Dominguez is back today for his 9th ride.
Dennis Macklin
Game: #6 at Belmont Stakes
Prediction: #6
Calvin Borel looks to make history in tomorrow?s 141st running of the Belmont as the first jockey to sweep the Triple Crown Races on different horses. Borel was brilliant in guiding Mine That Bird to a 50-1 upset win in the slop at the Derby then begged off ?The Bird? to cash the Preakness with super amazon Rachel Alexandra. Saturday, Borel is reunited with Mine That Bird and is the 2-1 favorite breaking from post seven.
DMack likes #6 Charitable Man to spring a minor upset and take down the Belmont trophy. Why ??? Several reasons.
Charitable Man was considered a top two-year-old and was thought to be a major player in this year?s Triple Crown before a minor fracture set his training back to where he was unable to compete in the Derby despite having enough money on his card to qualify.
Trained by the formidable Kiaran McLaughlin who won the Blemont with Jazil, Charitable Man was clearly short finishing seventh in the Blue Grass before crushing eight opponents in the Peter Pan. He?s a big horse with excellent tactical speed and ridden by the white-hot Alan Garcia.
Not much bad to say bad about Mine That Bird but the Triple Crown Trifecta is a real grind (War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown) and the recent history of the race has not been favorable to late closers. In fact, since 2000, just one horse worse than second with a quarter-mile to go went on to win the race and that horse was third and less then a length back.
IMO, hard to see Mine That Bird at least getting a piece so lets play Charitable Man to win and over a box of Miner?s Escape, Dunkirk, and Mine That Bird for your exotics.
Game: #6 at Belmont Stakes
Prediction: #6
Calvin Borel looks to make history in tomorrow?s 141st running of the Belmont as the first jockey to sweep the Triple Crown Races on different horses. Borel was brilliant in guiding Mine That Bird to a 50-1 upset win in the slop at the Derby then begged off ?The Bird? to cash the Preakness with super amazon Rachel Alexandra. Saturday, Borel is reunited with Mine That Bird and is the 2-1 favorite breaking from post seven.
DMack likes #6 Charitable Man to spring a minor upset and take down the Belmont trophy. Why ??? Several reasons.
Charitable Man was considered a top two-year-old and was thought to be a major player in this year?s Triple Crown before a minor fracture set his training back to where he was unable to compete in the Derby despite having enough money on his card to qualify.
Trained by the formidable Kiaran McLaughlin who won the Blemont with Jazil, Charitable Man was clearly short finishing seventh in the Blue Grass before crushing eight opponents in the Peter Pan. He?s a big horse with excellent tactical speed and ridden by the white-hot Alan Garcia.
Not much bad to say bad about Mine That Bird but the Triple Crown Trifecta is a real grind (War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown) and the recent history of the race has not been favorable to late closers. In fact, since 2000, just one horse worse than second with a quarter-mile to go went on to win the race and that horse was third and less then a length back.
IMO, hard to see Mine That Bird at least getting a piece so lets play Charitable Man to win and over a box of Miner?s Escape, Dunkirk, and Mine That Bird for your exotics.
Discreat Cat
Saturday, June 6, 2009
1-for-3 on Friday, with a winner on Roi Charmant ($7.80)
Belmont - Race 5
#3 Get Stormy (6/1 ml)
Belmont - Race 7
#6 Modern Look (8/1 ml)
Belmont - Race 9
#4 Funny Moon (8/1 ml)
Belmont - Race 9
#3 Mr. Hot Stuff (15/1 ml)
Hollywood - Race 8
#1 Noble Court (7/2 ml)
Hollywood - Race 9
#5 Madeo (5/2 ml)
Saturday, June 6, 2009
1-for-3 on Friday, with a winner on Roi Charmant ($7.80)
Belmont - Race 5
#3 Get Stormy (6/1 ml)
Belmont - Race 7
#6 Modern Look (8/1 ml)
Belmont - Race 9
#4 Funny Moon (8/1 ml)
Belmont - Race 9
#3 Mr. Hot Stuff (15/1 ml)
Hollywood - Race 8
#1 Noble Court (7/2 ml)
Hollywood - Race 9
#5 Madeo (5/2 ml)
Our selection on Saturday is on Flying Private "across the board" -- that is, separate bets on Flying Private to Win, Place and Show. This year's edition of the Belmont Stakes may be lacking in some of the drama of recent years -- like just 12 months ago when Big Brown was going for the Triple Crown -- since no horse will be in that position this Saturday. Oddly enough however, a jockey will be in the position of winning all three legs as Calvin Borel, who won the Derby with Mine That Bird and then took the Preakness with the Super Filly Rachel Alexandra, will be back on Mine That Bird (with Rachel not running) and have a chance at that rare feat. Mine That Bird has gone from 50-1 in his winning upset in the Derby to 6-1 with a strong runner-up performance in the Preakness, to likely favorite on Saturday. Any thought that Mine That Bird was a complete fluke who only did what he did in the Derby because of the wet track, or the ride by Borel, were pretty much put to rest in the Preakness when the gelding made a spirited run at Rachel Alexandra and was closing at the finish. The problem is, at likely odds of less than 2-1, you won't be getting any value on the Bird. But there was another horse in that Preakness race who was also closing at the finish and who is running on Saturday and with who you will get great value. That horse is the D. Wayne Lucas-trained Flying Private. Lucas is no stranger to winning this race, something he's accomplished four times in his Hall of Fame career, and not always with the favorite. In 2000, he won the Belmont with 18-1 shot Commendable and Flying Private should be about the same odds come Saturday. This colt is regally bred, by the Fusiachi Pegasus, the son of the great Mr. Prospector and winner of the 2005 Kentucky Derby and he is out of an Unbridled mare named Beautiful Treasure. Fusaichi Pegasus' off-spring have shown a wealth of class and stamina on the racetrack and although Flying Private would surprise a lot of people if he won, certainly nobody who was handicapping on pedigree would consider this an upset. There is another very good reason to like Flying Private and that is the fact that one of the best young Jockeys in the country, Julien Leparoux will be along for the ride. Leparoux is known for moving horses up off of previous races, and certainly Flying Private's performance in the Preakness was nothing to sneeze at so if Leparoux works his magic then he should be right there at the end. You have to love this colt's closing style as he simply ran out of ground at Pimlico but at Belmont Park, where the turns are sweeping and the stretch seems to go on forever, Flying Private may well find his best gear inside the quarter pole and don't be surprised if he looks like Mine That Bird did in the Derby, picking off horses one-by-one. You may very well be saying "who was that" as he crosses the finish line. Take Flying Private in the Belmont ACROSS THE BOARD -- that is to Win, Place and Show. TrackPicks Sports
Doc's 2009 Belmont Stakes Picks
2009 Belmont Stakes Picks
1st place horse - #7 Mine That Bird
2nd place horse - #1 Chocolate Candy
3rd place horse - #4 Summer Bird
$100 recommended bet
$4 Exacta on 7 with 1,2,4,6,8 = $20
$1 Trifecta - 7 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 = $20
$1 Superfecta - 7 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 = $60
Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports
2009 Belmont Stakes Picks
1st place horse - #7 Mine That Bird
2nd place horse - #1 Chocolate Candy
3rd place horse - #4 Summer Bird
$100 recommended bet
$4 Exacta on 7 with 1,2,4,6,8 = $20
$1 Trifecta - 7 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 = $20
$1 Superfecta - 7 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 = $60
Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports
